A key to understanding tomorrow's update will be to understand that most likely we are now making an impulse wave upward as shown below from October 2023.
The fourth wave, shown here as 4, is a long zigzag to alternate with the short flat for the wave shown as 2. These are likely only minute degree waves, and the wave symbols will be corrected tomorrow. I just wanted to make the point with numbered symbols, 1 - 5, today.
The wave is an impulse with an extended first wave x1; wave 3 is shorter than 1, and, therefore, wave 5 when complete should be shorter than wave 3. We may have yet to experience the fourth wave, iv, within wave 5, yet.
There was no proof this would happen, but it did. The lack of overlap was the telling factor.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
is tomorrow's update going to address the higher degree count?
ReplyDeleteYes. TJ.
DeleteDavid, I think we may be on different time frames, but I am watching this ED with curiosity.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/di9VzbE
I think its interesting that the mania is showing the same pattern in Bitcoin.
https://imgur.com/vO1pji3
I suspect an impulsive move higher in equities in the face of the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in history has to be a first..Is fundamental analysis and true market price discovery a thing of the past? The market exits for many months now have been massive. Who's buying? Banks are sitting on hundreds of billions losses in their bond portfolio..Hedge funds simply do not have that kind of buying power, neither do retail investors. Mystery market. On the new highs I am out of the series gaps long trade. Staying on the sidelines. Something is rotten in Denmark! 😊
DeleteThe best analogy I ever heard on this was a pool with 3 garden hoses going into it with the Fed, Treasury and Banks all standing in different corners with a valve looking at each other. The Fed may be doing QT and banks are not lending but the Treasury has their valve wide open and lobbying for a larger hose.
DeleteGold still looks corrective up to the .786 retrace.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/5HkVVub
Your bullish stance was correct. 😊
DeleteStop this non-sense. The stance was correct only if one wanted to endure a 350+ point S&P decline from when "B Wave Phil" said, "straight up, straight up" from the all time high at 5,333 as he rode it all the way down to 4,963. I don't know about you, but my little account can not endure such a draw-down. (Notice he did NOT say to buy the bottom. He did not come on here are harass you all into buying - like he did at the top).
DeleteOn the other-hand, the Ira Epstein approach was appropriately long over the 18-day SMA, and it does not take a "magical Phil" or even a Robert Prechter style EW analyst to implement Ira's guidance for trading.
This is precisely WHY this blog is not about trading. It is about wave-counting.
Period. Phil is not qualified to give trading or investment advice. He is to be ignored.
TJ
and the guaranteed rate cuts....
Deletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
@phil ...
DeleteGoogle
Hi,
Thanks for flagging potential policy or legal violations on Google. We’ve received your report under the following abuse category: harassment.
The Google Team
From me>> You are to immediately 'cease & desist' from posting on this site, or I will review legal options for stopping your harassing activity on this site.
TJ
@TachyonMay 15, 2024 at 10:05 PM
DeleteJust an item to remember, the U.S. once again has a 'war economy'. I covered this in an earlier post. We are selling arms to both Ukraine and to Israel. The House & Senate actually 'agree' on something: foolishly- that we can spend ourselves into oblivion by providing arms for warring factions. It is - as it always has been - very profitable, and it stimulates the economy without fail. There is uncommon fiscal stimulus - a lot like the 1940's and 1950's.
TJ
Tj,
ReplyDeleteplease could you give your counts on Gold
The weekly count on GOLD is currently like this. I am counting parallel channels until I can no longer.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dXKHhXDv/
You need to take over from here.
TJ
@BB. not sure how to tweak the analogy to illustrate leverage but I suspect it is massive. In which case rates and inflation stay elevated...until the bubble finally bursts...
ReplyDeletemaybe we put leverage in the remaining corner of the pool.
DeleteThanks Tj. 30% from Nov 2023 4103 is 5333 for spx. 7 months sustained returns and it is already clear jo more rate hikes but only cuts, where do you see the count w.r.t Time?
ReplyDeleteES futures 1-Hr: futures already have a new higher high; likely in ⑤ of iii.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/13AGO3y8/
Chart has the usual 10-min lag.
TJ
Here's an updated link.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UWhvcz6l/
TJ
Phil - you have left me no choice. You have been reported to Google. And you will continue to be until you stop your continuing harassment.
DeleteGoogle
Hi,
Thanks for flagging potential policy or legal violations on Google. We’ve received your report under the following abuse category: harassment.
The Google Team
From me>> you are to immediately 'cease & desist' from posting on this site, or I will review legal options for stopping your harassing activity on this site.
TJ
It will be interesting to see if we get a Dow Theory confirmation. So far transports spoiling the party...
ReplyDelete...agree. TJ.
DeleteTuesday is NVDA earnings day. During the minute 5th wave? Can they push the ES to 5400 ?
ReplyDeleteon your chart I see 3 waves down from march to april and three waves up to present time. Is there any reason not to see this as a B wave completing currently? I know it looks uber bullish but isn't that why B waves are called "sucker rallies"? PS on futures, we've reached 1.618 of the possible A/B from mid April
ReplyDeleteRoberto - this is addressed in the next day's post, which is up already. Thanks for asking. TJ.
DeleteThanks very much
DeleteA question TJ can I post the SPX monthly wedge without any EWT count. I just think it looks cool as it progresses.
ReplyDeleteNo, you may not for a simple reason. The wedge you are citing is due to 1) lack of knowledge of how to plot charts, 2) lack of knowledge of wave-counts. As to the first item, your supposed 'wedge' is an illusion caused by not plotting the wave in semi-log scale. For all time frames > 5 years almost all chartists know to use the semi-log to avoid the effects of common inflation. This is what your chart looks like when plotted on the semi-log. It is a more simple channel count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MPewyOqy/
As to the wave counting skills, you have some reading and some serious study to do, that is, IF you seriously seek to make likely wave counts (regardless of whether they invalidate; the count 'should' be valid).
TJ
Ok ;Thanks TJ
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MPewyOqy/
ReplyDeleteYour count is incorrect imho we respectfully disagree. We are topping now in a cycle V. Another 5 wave paradigm .
..but you offer no evidence 'whatsoever'. So - like I said yesterday - you can disagree all you like, especially without evidence. TJ.
Delete..also, this is explained more in the next day's post - which is already up. It includes measurements that offer 'some' evidence - not perfect evidence - not 'proof positive', but 'some' evidence upon which to base a wave count. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ