Previous posts said that the up wave was not yet longer "in time" than the down wave. It was stated more than once. Today may have constituted "equal" time per the chart below. There were 13 + partial day down, and now there are 13 + partial day up.
This is shown as 14 days down, and 14 days up on the above chart. The uptrend can continue for another day. Beyond that a new high is also possible. A new high can't be ruled out without downward overlap which hasn't happened yet. But keep in mind it is the very purpose of second waves to convince the majority that the previous up trend is resuming. The majority may become correct, but they haven't just yet.
That said, once again, while price is over the 18-day SMA, the daily bias is positive. The daily bias does not switch to negative until price is back below the 18-day SMA. If you plan on trading against the bias, which a seasoned broker like Ira Epstein does not recommend, then recognize that you will be fighting the algorithms, the Smart Money, and the 0 DTE's. It's just that simple.
And, as of today, the daily slow stochastic has not embedded, but, if it is to embed, it would be tomorrow as the third day.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
This is my bullish alternative. A moonshot yet to come to cap off centuries of optimism.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/n5vu9uT
Dow 7 days up and many indexes pushing against the daily bb for multiple days. Rsi divergence on all mid time frames. Still looks like a C of B to me.
ReplyDeleteI didn't have consumer sentiment on my bingo card for the top.
DeleteThe Inflation Expectations component also didn't help, 3.5% vs Ex 3.1%. People are getting used to inflation.
DeleteYep. Series gaps always a cautionary note for bearish wave counts.
ReplyDeleteSemis gapped higher this morning on TSMC's April sales report, mostly AI-related.
ReplyDelete"In a statement, TSMC said it posted NT$236.02 billion (US$7.27 billion) in consolidated sales in April, up 59.6 percent from a year earlier and up 20.9 percent from a month earlier."
Gold update.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/uWolI4X
Getting some reaction here at .786 from the triangle peps.
ReplyDeleteES
DeleteUpdated diagonal on es.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/OBi8gwp
Have a great weekend all and good luck!
Outside reversal day afoot...? 😊
ReplyDeletevix is barely moving at all, no one wants protection for Monday?
ReplyDeleteJust going to post this monthly SPX chart again. The next decline should overlap 4600 and maybe find support at 4550 to 4500. Top near 5300???https://i.postimg.cc/3wWjPzrr/Screenshot-168.jpg
ReplyDeleteUpdated chart, https://i.postimg.cc/XqhW26dP/Screenshot-169.jpg
DeleteThe British FTSE Monthly
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/3w5tX8fq/Screenshot-171.jpg
@458african You're thinking we do an ATH and then push down shortly after? I keep this rhetoric alive in my head (which is why i suck at stocks, i bought my lessons on this way of thinking, but hard to keep away) that we will be pushing to ATH when the election comes around. But perhaps the economy will be doing well but not the stock market for some reason? Hard to keep all the conspiracy theories in check.
DeleteWhether we complete this pattern as shown or we fail to make a ATH i'll let the market make the decision. I would think the inflation data misses this week and we get a final run towards 5300. Then reality takes hold as recession would expand the deficit greatly and the bond market goes to new lows. The market has been in a 3 wave paradigm for a long time. I see many different counts with Elliott technicians pulling their hair out. I am not a technician. This count makes a lot of sense to me. I have seen it anywhere else. Maybe because the majority think in fives. Back in the 1980's
DeleteRobert Prechter thought a large EDT was possible but never expanded on it. Who knows but the wave structure has some anomalies if it coounts in fives.
The sentence should be i haven't seen this anywhere else.
DeleteIt reminds me of the V shaped recovery (aka last time i blew up my account and gave up) and here and elsewhere EW blogs were basically up against a wall. That was when the SPY counts were basically impossible and ES was the only thing making any sense. But certainly, wars and rumors of wars, will continue to keep many in fear. There's no hope for me trading anymore (good thing) and back to work on Tuesday for my modern 4 10's week (better).
DeleteThese moves remind me of moves that happen in triangles. They need to be at a certain place at a certain time. If you over stay your position danger!
DeleteIt could very well be a triangle, the lower daily bollinger band is slightly higher than the previous low, around 4950 currently.
DeleteExpecting new highs as market appears to be consolidating gains.
ReplyDeleteDid we just see a "double-top" in the ES June 2024 futures?
ReplyDeletehourly RSI hinting at another move up. With the vix up 8% it could be another crush tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteX1 count from 5036.25
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/XyOKNKO
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ