Basis the ES futures, prices sunk lower overnight (creating a large close-to-open gap in the cash market). Prices came within a point of hitting the 18-day SMA. Then prices spent most of the day battling around that very same average, only to undercut the 09:45 am low in the after-hours and land on that average about 30-minutes before the futures close. As of this writing they have now also slightly undercut the 23 May low Here is the current daily chart of the ES futures.
The black numbers show the current Elliott Wave count. The red numbers show the alternate if another fifth wave up does not kick in within a few days. ES prices have not had a 38% retrace in this wave yet. The Dow has more than that and is actually below its 100-day SMA.
We don't know that black wave (iv) is over yet. It could be by forming a complex correction, or it could drop lower, possibly in a diagonal. Either way Intermediate wave (3) still meets its upward length criterion at this time. We'll keep an eye on it.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
I was wondering why the Dow 30 couldn't rally after a 600 point loss yesterday and decided to look through the list. There are just a few bank and tech companies holding this average up. The rest look to have topped and some are train wrecks. If the market falls out of bed soon it would not surprise me. Have a great Memorial Day. Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteWell YM_F down 340 tonight. Something unseen is going on here? Doesn't act like a corrective wave to me.
Adjusted ES 4hr channel down.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/qiKfRN6
Looks like a good impulse off the bottom.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/X5jkySc
Gold has a completed impulse but still looks ugly. I think it is against the larger trend.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/da427RT
SPY 1-hr: both cash and futures have a lower low. Let's see what length does for a potential diagonal. Adjust trend lines as needed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8ppxuL3L/
TJ
fyi - US Pending home sales drop 7.7% month-on-month. TJ
ReplyDelete(From CNBC) Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/bank-of-america-ceo-consumer-spending.html
TJ
"Turned cautious" is a cute euphemism. They are broke. Credit card debt at historic highs with no GDP attendant bump. People are going into debt just buy necessities. I think we are already in a recession....
DeleteES 2-hr: this is not ideal, but because of the lower low, and upward overlap, the count 'does indeed' work. Can go lower, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W3HpgPCP/
TJ
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. There is nothing overtly bullish yet on the intraday chart. Price is below the 18-per SMA, and the 100-per SMA. Further the 18-per is below the 100-per SMA. Price is currently riding the lower band, breaking support of the S1 daily pivot, so new lows are 'possible'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WR5K81GN/
This chart is in agreement with the daily bias which again has a close under the 18- day SMA, and so the daily bias is negative too. Again, nothing bullish.
Traders who think wave (v), up, is yet to come - and that we haven't seen the top yet may want to wait until price either breaks an up (green) fractal, or gets above the daily pivot, or finds traction on the 100-per SMA to get more confirmation of an up move.
TJ
ES 2-hr: the diagonal count has worked out so, far, into the area of the prior fourth wave of one lower degree.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1MxU6ZoF/
TJ
fyi - Chicago PMI comes in at 35.4 vs consensus of 41 and previous of 37.9 @ 09:45 ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30 min - here's the situation on the intraday wave-counting screen with updated fractals and daily pivot points. The prior green up fractal from 'yesterday' was not hit although a green 'up' fractal made in the over-night was indeed exceeded higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2REaaTBf/
Price went to R1 in what 'looks like' five waves and is backing off on the news report (Chicago PMI). The 18-per SMA and the 62% retrace coincide. The low is now the closest down (red) fractal.
TJ
ES low exceeded: one side of the bands to the other. TJ,
DeleteHi TJ
ReplyDeleteIsn´t the ewo very deep for a fourth wave > -40% of peak wave 3??
Both ES and cash.
ED's of the size in April are usually a waves.
ReplyDeleteThe large diagonal would have two hits against it. The lack of deep retrace and there would be no alternation with an impulse from 3502.
ReplyDeleteToday's low would have to be about it for the 4th wave option.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend all!
Pretty strong reversal off the lows pointing to deep retrace if not new ATHs. Have an awesome weekend all!!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ