Today isn't any ordinary day. Today is a day when the ES daily price has contacted the upper daily Bollinger Band with the daily slow stochastic in just an over-bought condition, as below. (The indicator is not yet embedded to the upside).
We don't know before-hand this will be the case, but this is often a location where the Smart Money takes some profits. There's nothing overt in the price structure, yet, other than price is also up into the 62 - 78% Fibonacci zone for a retracement, as well.
So, it's up to the Smart Money at this point. Do the big accounts begin to take some profits here or not? Only time will tell. It may help to look to some hourly candlesticks for clues. We shall see.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
Two near equal waves in a channel alternating in personality.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/7cp4J0l
i can always tell when you are lost as the analysis concentrates on hocus pocus technicals like ma's, boll bands, and fibs rather than elliott wave counts, which have been absent for a week or two.
ReplyDeleteThats what you do when there are various probable counts. You look for other clues.
Delete@snp .. your comment is wrong on every, single level. First, I don't 'only' use technicals when the count is murky. I use technicals every single day. Here is a posting from 2015 - which is fully nine (9) years-ago now showing my commitment to them.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
Second, EW counts are posted on the above chart and in the comments for the prior posts. So, not 'absent' for a week or two.
Third, EW analysis is only 'probablistic'. It 'is' no guarantee. 'Sometimes' the daily seasonals say, "there is a turn on Tuesday" (Yale Hirsch), and sometimes that agrees with an EW count. This one might, or it might not. I suppose you - in your infinitely better wisdom - know which particular individual Tuesdays will result in a turn and which ones won't. If you do, and I doubt you do, then 'show us' along with your proof. Until then, we look count, and do our level best.
TJ
SNP so let's see your current count.
DeleteI second Roy C's remark. SNP ... what do YOU have here? For someone to be critical, yet at the same time be one who can "always" tell ... suggests to me that you are almost always STILL reading here. FYI, another well known service indicated this last week that there are times when too many options are viable and confidence in any one can't be high. BB is correct, you look for other clues. It sure looked like we were starting a large A of 4. Maybe not (yet).
Deletebe a real man and post a count and toss the boll band crap is what i am saying. you wanna be ewt, then be that, here is a real mans count: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xLkv8E8N/
Deleteyou only pretend to count. every post here for 5 years is "wait and see"
Deleteyou can block me if you cant handle it i understand. what im saying is give me a count. tell me if you think its corrective or impulsive by your count. give me something predictive. thats what ewt is all about. but i cant tell from most of your posts that you dont trade that much. i need trades. i need a line in the sand. i want a level to know when to take risk and where im right or wrong. but that aint happnin here.
Delete@snp .. I have said repeatedly that this is not a 'trading' site. This is a wave-counting-site. So far, there are only three-or-four of us doing wave counts here. That seems odds for the thousands of hits the site gets. Most people want 'free' trading recommendations. That is expressly not the purpose of this site. I post regular charts - daily or several times a week. Why? Because the most important Elliott Wave turns will show up on the daily and/or weekly charts. Sometimes you can get a good turn on a four-hour or hourly chart, but that is increasingly rare because of 0 DTE options - which now force many moves to the end of the day.
DeleteRegardless, I am an ardent supporter of the trading style that I showed you in the post from broker Ira Epstein - long only opportunities over the 18-day SMA, and short-only opportunities under the 18-day SMA. Trade with "the wind at one's back".
I 'often' put the key invalidation level on the charts, along with 'overlap warnings'. In many, many posts I 'clearly' indicate 'wave-counting-stops' where the count would be incorrect.
If you have read my posts for understanding you will see those things. If you are just trying to 'slam' the site, then you won't. It's up to you ..
TJ
Completely agree with SNP.
DeleteMakes zero sense to COMPLETELY agree. TJ noted .... "I have said repeatedly that this is not a 'trading' site." So the goal isn't to guide trading. That said, "wait and see" has limited value for many if you are trading (on shorter time frames). Successful traders have routinely said, chart analytics and consistently successful trading are two entirely different skills. And trading styles differ, so one size doesn't fit all. Use the EW insights to trade in sync with your own style. In my case, its a secondary tool not the primary one. But I'm still here, like others.
DeleteWell said, Pedro.
DeleteES -1Hr: double-close key reversal (i.e. bearish engulfing, too). Chart is behind at the moment. Let's see if there is follow-through or not. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 1 Hr: this chart of the ES/CFD will work for now. Same count as ES.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/14qm85
TJ
ES 1 Hr: this one just cleans up the single zz vs dzz in favor of the double zz.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/14qmhw
TJ
December ES will this time relationship hold up? on the daily the turn would come May 7/8.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/swE917Jp/
I'm looking for this b (of 4) wave to stretch out another week or more. SPY weekly momo's are 97 and 98 for me (100 max), while my faster tuned macd remains on sell and doesn't (yet) APPEAR likely to buy. The momo's can get pegged up at these levels, allowing the macd buy signal ... but the odds have to favor failure. A new high on a b wave would be "IDEAL" to net the most fish. Let it be so.
ReplyDeleteThere was a gap fill today @5200 SPX and it started down. Imagine that.
ReplyDeleteC wave next 😊
ReplyDeleteGold
ReplyDeleteNot the deep retrace for 2 that I would like, but this looks valid.
https://imgur.com/O4RQ5n5
The way vix has broken down,
ReplyDeleteLooks like bigger rallies to come in all indices
Nope
DeleteI almost forgot about Japan which has started down again. Today was the 28th day from the top in the SPX. If the analog is in play hang on for the rest of May and June.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed not cutting will possibly collapse the Yen. The Yen has been at record lows but the BOJ interveened with Janet Yellen. But this just stalled the inevitable. Should find a bottom in 26 trading days. That's 54 days from the top. Not trading advice. But watch Japan.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: here's an update to yesterday's chart. Wave-counting-stop and overlap warning are shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/14rcz3
TJ
Had the same as you above but maybe it needs a wee bit more time.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/3DKEgag
Looks like abc (4 of C) finished today, if it's a C of B. Hourly Rsi totally collapsed in the morning, so another divergent high makes sense to reset it. 4hr rsi also a bit low already. Thank you for the updates.
ReplyDeletedivergent high, looks like a good place for a turn, I wait....
DeleteWatching a 30 minute ES triangle.
ReplyDeleteGold I think we are in c of 2 or b after a contracting diagonal that ended at 2285.2.
SPX chart: perhaps the last up leg of the rebound?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0nQeYZWL/
Series gaps remaining open could be a cautionary note, generally coming at the start, or end of extended bull runs..Agnostic until close tomorrow. 😊
DeleteNow counting a possible B wave higher with target at overhead gap in DJIA.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ