Today is a good example of just 'why' - regardless of the potential Elliott Wave count - one's strategy might best be suited by adhering to the trading guidelines supplied in the post at this LINK, as paraphrased from Ira Epstein's public videos, he being a broker with the Linn Group.
Look at the volume profile on the right hand side of the chart. Look at how low the number of trades is in each cell of the volume profile as price works its way up on the news of the CPI report & low retail sales.
This is nothing but pure 'machine trade' from the news-reading algorithms likely powered by the co-located servers that the Smart Money places as close as possible to the exchanges and pays big fees for the privilege of being first to the market.
It is hard for the retail to compete in that zone. That post-news bar is a five-minute candle. Was some of the retail on the way to work when that report came out? Were others using a news-service where the delay might be a minute before getting the report compared to the non-delayed premium services?
Regardless, the effects of this machine trade are here with us to stay. Often, not always, such bars will be classified as '3rd' waves in EW theory, sometimes as 'C' waves.
For the purposes of this blog, we note, though, that this price movement is happening over the 18-day SMA - which Ira classifies as 'positive bias' and with an embedded daily slow stochastic reading. Today is a good example of why.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
Here is the wxy to b count.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/WneYmbA
NEWS FLASH joe
ReplyDeletethe FED is going to lower rates
GUARANTEED ........
. the short end is already imploding
the fed FOLLOWS the market
it does not lead
https://i.gyazo.com/cc70289a522edde54c7fe4a4200ece53.png
ReplyDeleteYou know Wall Streets Wisdom says RUN AWAY from anyone using the word GUARANTEED----- Run people run
DeleteThis mania will end sooner or later because the UST 30 year will complete it's B wave up @124? Yes and then at some point probably 5300 to 5340 this triangle of major degree will top. Just waiting patiently as TJ suggests.
ReplyDelete5420 to 5440 spx are the targets
Deleteas i have shown you from last year
https://i.gyazo.com/39b35b32c088576ae1923721365c5b75.png
DeleteI figured the series gaps would be bullish, but this is full blown mania! 😊
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: first trend line break & overlap warning indication.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UUsNJGwS/
TJ
Updated chart on my 15 year 3 wave Paradigm ending diagonal. I think wave Y was so long,I think Z of C will be short. Yes it could blow over by quite a bit....we shall see.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/W1QNcPJm/Screenshot-172.jpg
Not a valid Elliott Wave count. Pls stop posting it. TJ.
DeleteWell TJ I disagree respectfully. I have followed you for years possibly since the 2009 bottom and iirc every count you have had has been all three's. Maybe I'm wrong. Ok I won't post it anymore. It's your blog and you are the boss. Thank you.
DeleteYou can disagree all you like. I am following the 'rules' as outlined in the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, and the wave-counting-guidelines as best as possible. You are ignoring the section on 'improper counting'. You need to have 'some' rationale for counting waves correctively - such as overlap, which is not seen in your chart. Therefore, you should be counting some sections impulsively. I will update my count tomorrow. It requires only a minor tweak.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min: because of the trend line break, and the divergence break, so far there is only a wedge up to the upper daily Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sPbHiAqk/
TJ
..also, the lack of overlap. TJ.
DeleteWhat if we are in an ending expanding diagonal instead of an ending contracting diagonal?
ReplyDeleteThat's my other count on the monthly. We would be towards the end of 5. I will post an update later.
DeleteES 5-min: chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lmpAhIjw/
TJ
ES 5-min: there is a new higher high after the triangle. Can go further if it likes.
DeleteTJ
Target for thrust from triangle met. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: there is a tiny expanding diagonal after the triangle, shown below. There is overlap and the wave lengths are correct.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DrqtYOTV/
TJ
ES 5-min: then down below ④ of expanding diagonal. Watch to see if triangle ⓔ wave is exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteThanks for the updates. My counts were all busted...even the bullish ones...lol!
ReplyDeleteA second update has been posted for today. It is necessary to understand tomorrow's update. TJ.
ReplyDelete