Over the next several days/weeks, this will be one indicator to watch - the net number of new highs on the NYSE. This is the number of 52-week new highs minus the number of 52-week lows on the whole of the NYSE.
There are already two divergences with the prior all-time price highs. It will be interesting to see if a new swing low under the April low is made in this indicator.
The indicator alone is not a reason to think a new all-time price high can not be made. But what will be telling will be how this indicator acts if another new all-time high is made.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend / holiday.
TraderJoe
Very good TJ, thanks
ReplyDeleteIts not going to make any difference---The S&P 500, DJI, NYSE and Naz have announced they are all going to have just one company in their indexes. NVDA. This guarantees everyday for the foreseeable future will be a new ATH.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope you have a Roman Numeral vi, because Elliott only had v, of 3.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3JO1hCLM/
Oh, and a larger log trend channel on this 'three-month' chart might help your case, too (..not ..) because price is bumping up against it.
TJ
Here's the Naz 100 stocks above their 200d-sma ...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WFVdoduE/
We can see that this bull market is a bit weaker than the previous one and that we are past peak momentum. The Fed usually switches to QE when the line falls below 25%. We aren't close to that yet.
There are some studies out there (cf. Youtube) that suggest tht the longer the yield curve inversion, the more severe the subsequent bear market. We are around 540 days. Historically, 1929 (700d), 1973-4 (534d), 2008 (540d), 1999-2000 (294d), 1980 (378d). The stock market declines in 1973-4 and 2008-9 averaged 55%.
Usually, toward the end of the inversion period, some shock (oil price surge, pandemic, stock market crash) hits the economy and triggers a recession. The yield curve inversion weakens the economy and the longer it lasts, the greater the weakening. So, we appear to be set up for a 50%+ bear market. In 1929, there was a FOMO rally in July-August which led up to the peak. Then came the stock market crash, which triggered the depression. In 2008, I think there was an oil price shock, a market selloff and problems in the financial sector which triggered a severe recession..
I don't mean to imply that the market will sell off into a bear market now. We could get a FOMO rally this summer. The AI bubble could continue to expand a bit further.
DeleteCurious that Dow Theory no longer 'en vogue".. Still watching DJT with interest.
ReplyDeleteLooks like 5 down in YM. NQ and ES appear to be in different counts with only 3' so far...perhaps move up to align ahead..
ReplyDeleteYes on the YM 39114 low on Thursday,39105 later. This week should be interesting lot's happening.
DeleteGold is around TJ's channel.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ