Once you have done your analysis try to take your mind out of the equation. As I have been saying all week, once you have 1) the right number of candles, 2) the EWO, 3) the EMA-34, 4) a good channel, and 5) an eye on alternation - let these tools do the work!
There are 143 candles on this 'wave of interest'. It happens to coincide with the 4-hr chart. Still, you pick the timeframe that provides the 120 - 160 candles for the wave of interest.
Since wave (ii) did not have its x wave go over the high, it is perfectly acceptable in a fourth wave for the b or x wave of wave (iv) to go over the high. If you don't think the EMA-34 is the right average, look where today, yesterday and prior wave iv stopped.
The EWO is already showing signs of a fourth wave signature near the zero line. Could wave (iv) come back to the prior fourth wave of one lower degree, iv? It could but isn't required to. It is just often the case - like price going back towards the 18-day SMA.
Relax. Try not to fight it. Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
Maybe your 'iii' of '(iii)' was actually 'i'. And your '(iv)' is actually 'iv' of '(iii)'. And now we are in 'v' of '(iii)'. Led by NVDA and friends.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/vxJ16IY
DeleteThe lack of alternation and the EWO is why I suspect TJ has it labeled as such.
Ether way, now we see how it makes its way over to the other side of the channel.
"Led by NVDA and friends". LMAO, 10 of 11 sectors down on the day. Keep trying bruh.
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DeleteI did not like the length of the 'ii' wave of TJ's (iii). My count is clearer for NQ.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/udIb7XjR/
@Drew Did you forget to take your meds this morning? Be more polite, please.
Rsi is quite low again, another C up to end the week wouldn't shock me. If they can break 5300 we'll have a rodeo.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: so far, the measured wave in cash is 1.382.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QyMt9JHV/
TJ
SPY 15-min: first target of c = 1.618 x a, subtracted from b is met. Can go further to 2.618 if it wishes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fOZgGEhP/
TJ
i.e. 'Minimum' target only for expanded flat is met. TJ.
DeleteReport that the Chinese Navy has surrounded Taiwan in a possible naval blockade.
ReplyDeleteLarge scale military drills, which were well advertised as punishment for newly elected leader's bold proclamations.
DeleteDJIA (YM) futures - daily. Note, the DOW has 1) lost its embedded reading, 2) hit the 18-dma and then some, 3) met its channel target and 4) did not go over the prior high like the cash did.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3cCTaJ28/
TJ
ES 30-min: back to the intraday wave-counting-screen for a second, there are now three consecutive closes below the lower band, dropping the odds to 3 - 5% of the next close below the band. Not impossible - just lower odds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bvk9UuHK/
TJ
ES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hSfoYbAH/
TJ
Thoughts?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/14zp-9
"Neely indicates an impulse should not exactly parallel".
Also pot B of (Y) overlaps with C/(W)..double zz more likely?
looks like a 3 wave A down and we just completed B. If so, Tuesday will be down to 5200 area for C.
ReplyDeletedid you say that just to get my goat? How many times have I said on here that your count is illegal by the rules and it is fictitious? You simply 'can not' have three waves down, called an 'A' wave, which is not followed by a 90% or greater B wave up, followed by a C wave down. As in a flat wave. You 'can' have a-b-c to start a diagonal lower, or you can have i-ii-iii-iv to start a 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal. You can also have a-b-c(w)-(x)-a-b-c, but you CAN NOT have A-50-60%-B retrace followed by C wave lower. Otherwise, you can have 'any' count; i.e. no rules! Please read the rules for Flats, zigzags, and diagonals. TJ.
DeleteThat decline yesterday feels like a classic a wave in a triangle. Have a great long weekend all.
ReplyDeleteTJ, Before I head out I wanted to ask what your opinion of this wave is. I lean towards wxy but the speed at which its being retraced has me thinking.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Hhk5qrs
Thank you!
Don't know for sure, but this is what I am currently following.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jLd0l1qH/
TJ
Thanks!
DeleteOn the NDX 100 looks to me it's in a expanding diagonal on the 15 minute. Near a end??
ReplyDeleteMany expect a wave 3 up next week in the NDX..But a inside candle today.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering why the Dow 30 couldn't rally after a 600 point loss yesterday and decided to look through the list. There are just a few bank and tech companies holding this average up. The rest look to have topped and some are train wrecks. If the market falls out of bed soon it would not surprise me. Have a great Memorial Day. Thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteProblem is far worse than narrowness of market breadth. Whether talking about elections or financial markets, fraud has become an accepted way of life in.Western Civilization. SVB and FTX already forgotten. Lying or idiot talking heads asserting six rate cuts "priced in" by equities markets. Evergrande and Country Garden " not a big problem" In the end,cut will be " nobody saw this coming".
DeleteAnd some of this fraud is the 'observable' moral hazard of monetary policy and the continuing widening wealth inequality gap. When some individuals have too much money they will do immoral things with it. And, on the other end of the end of the spectrum, when some people have too little money, they will do immoral things to get some of the exploding pie that 'everyone else but them has'. None of it is excusable, but the checks & balances (including antitrust to bust up extremely large corporations, and many more) are or have eroded to a large degree. TJ.
DeleteHaving worked in the area, its become (more) politicized than even before. Much of it is under control of DOJ, the rest at FTC. Banking has consolidated thanks to Fed (serving as arsonist and then firefighter). The legal mechanisms for addressing the consolidations are too slow, too cumbersome, and ultimately political. Even treble damages are not enough to deter. The fraud is rampant because people (execs) are never held to account, just shareholders via wristslap fines.
Delete@pedro .. I agree that 'execs are never held to account'. This is often a huge part of the problem. I think if they were held to account, the examples would cause the systems to become less political. Here I think 1) the IRS should intervene with the definition of 'reasonable compensation' - which it clearly is not in total for very many - especially in comparison to their workers, 2) some thought should be given to outlawing the hierarchical form of corporate governance and require many/most companies to become employee owned and/or managed. This could certainly work for regulated companies like Utilities. I'm also listening for other ideas. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ