Into the Real Mess

With the prior post (Get Ready for a Real Mess at this LINK) I have tried everything possible to prepare you for the current whippy market behavior. I have written before about The Fourth Wave Conundrum that this is the time when "everyone wants to know what the count is because they are likely getting whipped badly". I have also tried to teach readers about diagonal structure. So, let me preface that I do not know if the count below is correct. But I do know that the count provides a precise invalidation point. This is the chart of the ES 4-Hr futures.

The count would be of the 5-3-5-3-5 Diagonal. It is a speculative count. But the count was taken because wave (iii) is longer than wave (i) in price, and wave (iv) is longer in price and time than wave (ii). This means a wave (v) should become longer than wave (iii).

Notice than within wave (ii), wave 'a' is also an expanding diagonal. And now, in wave (iv), we may have a zigzag within a channel shown (dotted parallel). If that price pattern holds, then it is possible that the fifth wave will form properly.

But the second reason the count is taken is that it allows us to drop the previously listed "wave-counting-stop" from the prior all-time high to the new location shown. This is the only precise wave-counting-stop I see because wave (iv) is not allowed over the high of wave (ii).

The diagonal personality is that the bullish market participants are simply not convinced the game is up, and they are fighting back tooth-and-nail. Hence, the "battle at the 18-day SMA", the "line in the sand".

I cautioned against getting gung-ho on this wave. I'm sure some are listening, but not all. The whipping is brutal. But, if a minute ⓘ wave does form properly, then if a retrace holds below the high, perhaps five minute-degree waves will form to make the Minor A wave down. It could take a while, and some might not have the patience for it.

I encourage you to take this time to learn the wave principle in full detail, rather than go on YouTube and learn it incorrectly, or ask people to tell you what their counts are. You simply will not learn until you struggle yourself with counts on markets which I do not show. But, if you do, then - after a while - the light bulb might just come on.

Again, nothing says the above count will come to pass. But it's the best I can do in my struggle to understand the current market.

Have an excellent start to your evening,

TraderJoe