Just a word of caution for tomorrow. Today marked the third consecutive day of the ES futures closing below the lower daily Bollinger Band with the daily slow stochastic in over-sold territory as per the ES daily chart, below.
This means the odds of another close below the band is only about 2 - 5%. Some of the Smart Money is likely taking profits at the lower band. Yes, price could go down to fill the gap or hit the 100-day SMA. But, even as today showed (because of the profit-taking) whippy behavior could immediately follow. Price could certainly close back inside the band at any time.
From an Elliott-Wave perspective we are counting the Minor A wave down. We can see one way it could have completed, and another way for it to continue. See the comments from the prior post if you have the interest. So, we are patient until the length of price movement becomes more convincing.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Here's an update to my SPX count:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ntECYsND/
I have added a Fibonacci extension measurement of wave (i),
marked the invalidation level (overlap),
and marked my target for the end of wave v at 4976, where wave v = wave i.
Also there is confluence with the 1.618 extension of wave (i), and where wave v = .618 x wave i. So two targets are provided for the end of wave v.
DeleteBut if (i) starts off as a 'three-wave'; a,b, (i) then (iii) must ALSO be a,b,(iii). Do you see the problem yet? You can't mix three and five wave segments. Can't be done.
DeleteTJ
Oops! 🤦♂️
DeleteI think that the count can work, if waves i through v are part of a of (iii). 💡
DeleteNo, then it would be 'a' of (iii), and the sub-waves would have to be 'micro' degree which you would have to show as a lower degree using the micro symbol in Trading View (little circle-1, circle-2) or something like -i, -ii, etc. to show they are smaller than a. I'm not nit-picking. I am trying to show 'all' readers the importance of degree. TJ.
DeleteGold update. Its not perfect, but its there.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/1rcfhyG
iv of c could be done on ES expanding diagonal count.
DeleteThe first possible drawing of a channel in an impulse to find the four is usually not were it turns.
DeleteIs it just the "heat of the moment", or do I see a second rejection at the downward sloping trend line of the "base channel" in this chart?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PrV1pFeN/
SPY 5-min: overnight the ES futures did indeed make a lower low. It would be interesting to see if cash can do the same. Possible 5-min cash triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6kYoJ3Z8/
IF so, it might indicate the last wave in the downward direction to follow and indicate an overall whippy day.
TJ
From these quotes cash did make a new low. TJ.
DeleteES has a new low as well. TJ.
DeleteAnd SPX cash is down to the Feb 22nd gap. A 4th day below lower BB implies some significant market weakness, if it stays down here of course. Closing that cash gap at 4983 is about where Gondorff has his target, seems there's a confluence of potential support there.
DeleteSPX chart update:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RxoqAQa6/
I hope that the labels make better sense now. 😅
No, I have been over & over the concept of the 'rule' that you can NOT have a Flat as numbered wave in any diagonal. You have a Flat labeled. Here you see the SPX. You see there is a clear new low. That is 'either' a Flat or a new diagonal, down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P2SqEo9M/
One can only have a Flat 2 in an 'impulse'. It breaks the 'rules' for all diagonals.
I have shown the correct count yesterday.
TJ
I apologize if I'm a bit slow. Like I mentioned previously, I'm an amateur trader. I use enough of the Wave Principle to make profitable trades, but I obviously don't understand all of the nuances. 😔
DeleteI think that you must be correct, TJ, about the truncation at the top. Because I think that we are definitely in an bearish impulse now. 🤔
Don't apologize. Learn. I think I might have resolved the issue you see in the comment at 2:22 PM, below. I think you will like it. Cash had me scratching my head, too. This is good until/unless it invalidates. TJ.
DeleteWave ⑤ of a, first target reached.
ReplyDeletesee 12:37 pm, below. TJ.
DeleteWill the first week of May provide another time pivot? Dec ES daily chart
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5OzNtV0K/
ES 4-Hr: this is the only count I see that follows all Elliott Wave 'rules', guidelines and degree definitions. Notice the degree labels get smaller as you backwards in time. Going backwards from the lower right: Minor (capital) -> Minute (circle) -> minuet (parenthesis) -> sub-minuet (small case). This indicates that degree definitions have been met.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LPwdu75c/
Notice, too how we can 'describe' the wave. It has an extended first wave minute-i (x circle-i). It is an impulse with alternation between minute-ii, circle-ii and circle-iv. And it makes a precise prediction that since minute-iii is less than minute-i, then minute-v should remain less than minute-iii in length.
TJ
Gold looks like a failed fifth.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/oxAHQFb
Here it is trying to hold expanded channel.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/T2cLtAT
Good luck to all today!
Thanks Tj, did 100-day Dma hit?
ReplyDeleteWelcome, manu. Not yet. The 100-dma is at 5,006 and ES is currently ~5,058. TJ.
DeleteSorry. I am such a lazy dude that I didn't even check. On spx 5007 hit.
DeleteUpdated expanding diagonal count.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/eZRefK6
Scrap that. I was working to quick and picked the 'end' of the 'a' wave, and not the start. The Expanding Diagonal is still on the table. TJ.
Deletedirected to your own 12:37 post, not BB ... correct?
Deleteno, a criticism of BBR's Gold count that I just erased. TJ.
DeleteSPX Cash .. I really, really, really hate to suggest this because it is quite non-proportional, but what if the expanding diagonal in SPX cash happened at the very high??!! Then, that gives us 'fives' on the way down and eliminates the a-b-c problem that Henry G. was finding. Then we have a channel count with 1.618 and a clear overlap invalidation. There would be no degree difficulties here, now, because of the length of time of minute-i, circle-i.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/33ecN1KX/
It further puts minuet (iii) of circle-iii on the low of the EWO, and minuet (v) of circle-iii on the divergence.
The issue was resolving the top.
TJ
TJ, that is a very radical solution to the problem which you have described about the apparent rule violation with the "failed" flat wave ②. 💡
DeleteI am satisfied to see that wave ③ or c - however it is labeled, has met the criteria for a completed impulse wave, at this point.
I suppose that the depth (height) of the next retracement will give us more insight into the actual wave structure of this decline since the beginning of this month.
SPY 5-min: it 'looks like' five-up'. If so, it argues for monitoring the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UBdEKTzA/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ