Baked ?

For the last several posts I cited a likely downward mess - which we were treated to. I said there was a good possibility of making a diagonal. I think we did. As the chart below shows, there is a way to count a 5-3-5-3-5 expanding diagonal in the ES 4-Hr futures - done and complete.

This count would have the form (v) > (iii) > (i), and (iv) > (ii) with wave (iv) overlapping wave (i) and not traveling beyond the end of (ii). The main reasons for the count are the size of wave (v), and the precision by which wave (iv) was longer than (ii) but did not exceed it.

I have dropped the degree one degree for the time being and see the whole wave structure as a minute ⓘ wave. Alternatively, the whole structure is the Minor A wave, also done and complete - depending on which degree it turns out to be. The downward sequences are "5"'s and not "3"'s, and the upward minuet numbered structures, the parenthesis ( ) structures, are zigzags as they are required to be. Wave ii is a flat - which is acceptable in the impulse portion. The only element which raises question on the count is that (iii) is shorter in time than (i), while it is longer in price. But then, (v) is much longer in time again which seems a reasonable trade-off.

The trend lines are nearly perfect, and when I look at the whole structure on the daily chart, it just looks a little small to be the whole Minor A wave. I could be wrong about that. But no one knows what is coming tomorrow - not me, not you - so we'll see how the waves do.

There is nothing that forces the adoption of this count yet. There is still a way to consider a truncation high and wave (iii) at the bottom, but there isn't a great Fibonacci ratio in that count either. So, this fits best at the time, though I do reserve the option to see if it impulses by making a new divergent low first.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe