The simplest way to count the hourly SPY chart is with a truncation (*) wave up just short of the former all-time-high, followed by a Bullish Falling Wedge (BFW) lower, followed by a channel count upward in the following manner.
The upward (c) wave does not have to be done, yet. It might spill over into Monday/Tuesday to try to reach 62% or greater. But, at present, it is in excess of a 50% retrace on the downward wave which is acceptable.
First waves down tend to be real stinkers, but the alternation in this one is a long and deep wave (ii) flat, alternating with a short and shallow wave (iv) zigzag.
If the up count since the low is going to bear-flag, it should end in this area or else it would have to form a double-zigzag or a Flat to take more time. Overall, I am still looking for five, clear minute-degree waves down to make the Minor A wave.
In any event, have a good start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
In USD/JPY, we are currently in a 3rd wave of an impulse up wave off the lows in Jan 2024.
ReplyDeleteTJ, I think this was discussed a few weeks back but I forgot. I know that no flats are allowed unless in the b wave position, but can any waves in a diagonal be ZZ's or ZZZ or only simple zig zags?
ReplyDeleteYes they can be. In fact, TJ illustrated a double ZZ for the intermediate degree wave 3 in his CED for primary degree wave 5.
DeleteYes, in some formations a DZZ occurs in wave three or five of a diagonal. TJ.
DeleteHere is my dilemma on gold. It seems the cleanest would be we need one more attempt at a high.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/UmLMXW0
but it does not seem enthusiastic about the idea.
https://imgur.com/bmupT2s
Looks like degree violation for a 1,2,i,ii down.
So is this truncation the thing that is throwing me off and its not two corrective channels after all?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/KERIj3G
Some chart thoughts on GOLD are below using the two-channels outlined earlier. Just looks to me like wave 3 is not over as it is not 1.618, making this a minute fourth wave lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TZ4DnaUH/
Notice where the RSI has been, and the gaps in 3.
TJ
Thx for the response!
Deleteanother possibility instead of truncation we had abc now a new leg up for a new high
ReplyDeletespx that us
Delete..another possibility is that it is abc as you suggest, but to ⓘ of a diagonal, either contracting (most likely because of where the daily lower Bollinger Band is) or expanding (less likely). I have considered the abc possibility but there is no evidence for going over the high yet. TJ.
DeleteI might be late on this but here we go again?https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-regulators-set-seize-republic-first-bancorp-wsj-reports-2024-04-26/
ReplyDeleteA related story:
DeleteBofA / JPM 4.5 bil in losses due to unrecoverable debt
TJ
.
Tip of the iceberg. The vast majority of their holdings are still not being marked to market. Bond losses are hundreds of billions for the big five.
ReplyDeleteUpdated Gold corrective channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/8m20wYD
b of z may ne done
DeleteA failure is pretty common in here
DeleteOn the SPX, I can see that the rebound has stalled in the area of an overhead resistance confluence of the descending trendline (from 4 April) and the 61.8% retracement:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wZdwYmAv/
This sure feels like a die in the middle 5th wave of an expanding diagonal from your 4/25 post.
ReplyDeleteEquities & bonds: please note Treasury refunding statement due at 3 PM ET (top of the hour)
ReplyDeleteTreasury Refunding Story
TJ
SPY 10-min: this might be a triangle waiting on the announcement.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KLnXVNAj/
The opposite of the triangle would be a downward diagonal.
TJ
Just of note, I am finding that in these expanding diagonals there is usually action around a center line.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/wAS19oE
SPY 10-min: using the Neely 0 - ii trend guideline might yield a count like this within (c).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jBITF9Sn/
TJ
potential triangle Invalidated downward on announcement ...
Deletehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-raises-its-second-quarter-borrowing-estimate-2f47feda?mod=mw_rss_topstories
DeleteSPY 10-min: either a failure out of a slightly smaller triangle on the announcement or a somewhat larger downward flat iv, with v, up, yet to come.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WRrOa3RN/
Flexibility and patience needed for a while.
TJ
SPX - downward overlap of wave a:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A01W2y4g/
Last up wave of the day made enough progress to call it v (greater than 78%). But it could go further tomorrow, too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CS62edvC/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ