In keeping with the theme of this wave being a real mess, I felt the best way to deal with it going into the weekend was to greatly oversimplify the count as the wave internals can be counted numerous ways.
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| ES Futures - Daily Close - 'Possible' Parallel |
Bottom line: we are looking for the Minor A wave down, composed of five minute-degree waves. But, as this point - whether an impulse count or a diagonal count, there is insufficient retrace in the ES futures to allow us to place a fourth wave at this time. We do not 'know' the third minute wave is over, so it could go lower.
The ES price got down below the lower daily Bollinger Band and pierced the 100-day SMA in the overnight news regarding Israel's actions. Then, during the cash session today, price weaved around on both sides of that average, closing just slightly below it, and below the lower daily Bollinger Band for the sixth consecutive day.
We note that with 14-daily candles the RSI is not solidly in over-sold territory yet. "A" waves can be pretty atrocious so caution and flexibility are warranted until there are some clearer wave patterns and retraces.
Have an excellent rest of the evening and start of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj. 200 sma around 4800.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ, The only thing that could really mess this wave 4 and then a wave 5 top is a currency crisis caused by a strong dollar and a persistent inflation here in the U.S..
ReplyDeleteWhy should the Japan N225 not repeat the top and decline of it's wave A down 10,000 points in 1990? I wonder?
The N225 4 day chart,presently in a wave 3 down.
https://i.postimg.cc/nzykx5H6/2024-04-20-12-32-56-NKD1-37135-1-81-Unnamed-Brave.png
Monthly Japan N225 chart
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/bJ5tf2Rr/2024-04-20-12-54-42-NI225-37068-28-2-66-Unnamed-Brave.png
Purely a speculative count on my part,but just might fit Japan.
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/cJpV6FTN/Screenshot-20001.jpg
Interesting that both X waves were both world wide scares. Fukishima and Covid19
DeleteOn my SPX LT chart, if we overlap 4600 I think that could be a problem.
DeleteSome interesting notes on the large monthly diagonal in progress. Both X waves date March 11,2011 Fukushima and March 11,2020 when the WHO declared Covid a pandemic. This markert topped April 1st when Mercury went retrograde. Also this diagonal would still support another wave up in 7 wave advance whether a new ATH or a failure. We shall see.
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