Monday, April 29, 2024

Battle for the 18-day SMA

Based on the ES daily futures, prices spent the day waffling on both sides of the 18-day SMA, the "line in the sand", at about the 50% retrace level.


As of this writing the futures are not closed yet, but at the cash close they looked to finish above the mark. If so, that would flip the bias to positive for now. But the bars are currently "narrow-range-bars" and that raises some concern.

Another item of note is that the upper daily Bollinger Band is curling down under the prior all-time-high. In the middle of the price range extreme patience and flexibility are needed because the daily algo has the largest room to move and can generate whippy prices just for the pure frustration of it.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TrasderJoe

14 comments:

  1. We are still in the A wave down, correct?

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  2. Here is updated gold with the truncated z wave and leaving the channel.

    https://imgur.com/up1S5d8

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  3. I find these interesting.

    https://imgur.com/QmKXyIl

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    Replies
    1. I think it is referred to as "distribution". The "smart money" institutions are unloading their stock positions, at end of month, and "buy the dip" traders are still willing to buy these overpriced stocks.
      From strong hands, to weak hands.

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  4. 28 day 1987 analog in the Dow is possible. Will it continue?

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    1. Are we at the point where the next 10ish days bring about severe selling?

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    2. A 3rd wave is the strongest wave typically. The 28 day analog if that is what is in play here it does suggest a strong decline has started. Caveat Fed day is tomorrow. Google paul tudor jones 1987

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    3. I remember it like it was yesterday. Looking at a Stockcharts daily of the SPX cash from 1987, forgot how oversold the market already was even before the big crash. There was a doji on 10/5/87, I can certainly see the similarity to today's chart. From there it was pretty much straight down as it declined 14% in 9 days, then -20% on Black Monday.

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  5. Abc from the bottom up to the 18ma is a textbook move. Question will be will they want to push it more to convince bulls to be optimistic. We still have gaps above. Amazon after the bell should help push it once way or another. Interesting week.

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  6. Bitcoin I have a eye on this, currently near the wave 1 low. Bearish if it breaks

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  7. https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

    not much green.

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  8. SPY 1-Hr: just closed the prior upward gap.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zm0ZG5Pw/

    TJ

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  9. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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