Today marks the 5th consecutive day that the ES June futures have closed below the lower daily Bollinger Band as per the chart below. The close today was 5,049.00 compared to the lower band at 5,050.67 and this drops the odds to 1-to-3 percent that the next close will be below the band. In Ira's public videos he claims the most he has ever seen is seven-in-a-row.
However, of interest, the ordinary calculation of the daily slow stochastic has now attained embedded status on the downside.
Also of note, in any one of a couple of fashions, there are enough waves down to claim the Minor A wave has been made. And, yes, price could still attain the 100-day SMA and not ruin the count.
Another item is for certain. This decline since 01 April is already longer in price & time than the December 2023/January 2024 decline, and therefore it is of a higher degree. Remember we labeled that decline as minute ⓑ, and so labeling this decline as Minor A agrees that this degree label is larger than that one.
One also notes that the 18-day SMA is pointed downward and will likely act as resistance on the way up. With the embedded status, it is possible that Smart Money will continue to sell rallies until the embedded status is lost (and the %K red line of the daily slow stochastic crosses back up over the 21 level).
As we stated in the comments for the prior post, it is possible we completed the Minor A wave and are now into a messy B wave as a flat or combination. We'll see how tomorrow proceeds.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
I'm seeing solid prospects for higher yields imminently, along with a selloff in the banking sector from here (and for more than just a day or so). For tomorrow perhaps, certainly starting by Monday. VIX cousins should move higher too. Meaning ... I have doubts on B up quite yet. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteOn ZB, if that is a triangle, it has two equal legs in and out and is equal to the width of the triangle.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/kYXoc3E
I hope some on here were short. Fast market and Japan and especially Germany have just started their 3rd waves by my count. The Russell target is 1900. We will see what happens when it gets there.
ReplyDeleteSince wave 3 was only a 1.27 extension, wondering if wave 5 needed to do flexx some muscle.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/XBc4y7p
Serious action underway here in the O/N as the mideast reignites.
ReplyDeleteIsrael hits Iran nuclear facilities.
ReplyDeleteTruly mysterious how elliott can forecast market moves tied to events.
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDelete100 sma breached.
Lost the weekly 18, been a while
ReplyDeleteRussell 2k hit 1900 that was quick
ReplyDeleteGiven the news from this evening, we may be in the point of recognition. People here have offered a truncated top and Neely says all major turns have a truncation. From that point all I see is lower lows and lower highs and it is turning like an impulse in the down direction should. Has it been so messy because its all been sets of 1,2,s?
ReplyDeleteIf this is correct, its a long way down. Wave counting stop in my world would be 5062.5.
https://imgur.com/UrQI4Iu
That is one hefty hammer. If it does not hold into the close, we could be looking at a very bloody Monday imo...
DeleteTonights drop in the Dow futures looks to be 5 waves. I doubt it rallies back to not create a gap down at the open creating a island gap for the bears. I think that would be the first gap down.
ReplyDelete3rd wave?
There also appears to be 5 waves up from the "V shaped bottom" in the USA stock index futures markets. 🤔
DeleteThe rebound has now overlapped yesterday's cash session lows in the DOW30 futures.
DeleteJust plan Fugly! Point of recognition count is out. Update on diagonal. Corrections tend to run in a strict channel and that would apply to this 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/idXL8PG
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DeleteYou want me to count the C in 3 that will cause the most liquor sales over the weekend, you got it. :)
Deletehttps://imgur.com/LHMq5k6
DOW30 futures are now "in the green". 🟢
ReplyDeleteNew game,new pot.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to yesterday's attempt at counting the bottoming process of the impulse in the ES Futures:
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/R6N5hfvq
It looks like an ending expanding diagonal for the wave 5 of 5. 🤨
And in hindsight, I suppose that one could have expected the plunge in the final wave 5, as the fulfillment of the previously noted and very weird "triangle, drop, rebound" pattern that had already been repeating in the ending diagonal:
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/2bqDSJDP
Your 4 is smaller than 2, and is a Flat; both of which break the 'rules' for expanding diagonals. TJ.
DeleteHere's just a reminder of the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ER5banJ1/
TJ
ES retracement count on the 1 minute chart:
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/CnCwqxhW
Here's an updated SPX count of this month's decline:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JGzvA9R3/
If I could just find some enclosed roman numeral symbols, like the groovy ones TJ uses in his charts, then maybe I could get my wave labels sorted out properly! 😅
Filled the February 22nd gap in the cash SPX, and now looking at 6th daily close below lower BB. Incredible weakness here as this is now 3rd weekly SPX close with a larger % loss than the previous. Next cash gap is 4907 on Feb 2nd. Question remains, how low can A go.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ