We were expecting a messy wave downward. We're getting one. So far, in the ES futures, we may be getting a diagonal - as previously expressed. By far, the count that 1) is most proportional, 2) flows the best, and 3) does not involve degree violations is this expanding diagonal which a couple of us are counting. As well, this count follows the Elliott Wave Oscillator profile at the moment and can be clearly seen in the closing only chart below.
There are other ways to see the Minor A wave at today's low, but it does not quite look as proportional as this count. So, I'll hang on to that alternate for the time-being.
The above chart does provide a clean invalidation and it also suggests quite a wild snap-back from the current price lows. That is in agreement with today being the fourth consecutive close of price below the lower daily Bollinger Band, and the daily slow stochastic still in over-sold territory. And A waves can often be diagonals, particularly in corrections. So, we have to go with what looks best at present.
We'll keep you updated as best we can. The wave structures are very testy.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Japan225 and the German DAX I think "they" count cleaner FWIW, Thanks TJ
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One more of the NQ 4 hour
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Thanks for the update, TJ! 😊
ReplyDeleteWhat is the source of your enclosed (circled) roman numeral labels?
Really nice corrective channel in gold.
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I'm leaning toward triangle or flat for GLD. 4 hr and daily +DMI is under adx.
DeleteIt looks like wave v of 3 is a (possibly truncated) ending diagonal:
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There is no truncation in the Nasdaq 100 futures.
The 4th wave is a triangle, although my screengrab is missing the c,d & e labels. 😅
DeleteSPY 5-min: I would move the wave-counting-stop 'up' from yesterday's low to this morning's low.
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TJ
Japan is finishing W2 of 3
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I will take this opportunity to illustrate how third waves form again. If you - for the moment - assume a i, ii, up - as shown - notice how much bigger the new micro ➀ can be - 'just as long as' it remains shorter than i, up.
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That 'still' meets degree definitions - even though the two ➀'s are vastly different in size from each other. Then, the new micro ➁ must remain shorter in price and time than ii - or else there is simply something wrong with saying a third wave will be the extended wave in the sequence.
This is 'how' those extended third waves are built - if this is what it becomes (it may not - it could always become a diagonal or something).
TJ
German DAX 4 hour
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Completed impulse from the Wave v (truncated) low this morning.
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For your thoughtful consideration.
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TJ
That is an interesting triangle! I was puzzling over the wave 4 structure for the past days, as it is not "conventional".
DeleteTJ, do you watch the NQ futures chart? I have learned to treat the Nasdaq100 as a "leading indicator", since it tends to be a higher "beta" index than the S&P500.
That's why I pointed out the wave 5 structure, which completed this morning in the NQ futures, but appeared truncated in the ES.
SPY 5-min: continuing with the degree expansion. Yes, the micro ➀ is still valid at the high. It is still shorter in price than 'i'. Now, can you see how the micro ➀ generated 'smaller' sub-micro waves (1) -> (5). This is what is meant by 'extending by smaller degree waves'.
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Now, also notice the time in bars. Wave 'i' was 24 bars. Wave micro ➀ was only 20 - 21 bars. So, it still fits as a smaller degree wave than 'i', up.
And there seems to be a turn here. Most people think this only has to do with 'resistance from the prior high'. Not so, it also involves the degree definitions, as well. I truly hope this helps.
TJ
Also, move the 'wave-counting stop' up to micro (2). TJ.
DeleteUST 30 year bond topped? Breaking 113 would be very bearish. IMHO
ReplyDeleteJapan 5 minute is it done????
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ZB_F 5 minute 30 year UST
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ZB_F Daily Thanks TJ I'm done for the day. Good luck everybody.
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SPY 5-min: the wave-counting-stop was hit. TJ.
ReplyDeleteDid we just see (another) super-tricky wave 4 of 5 of 5?
DeleteWe now have three-waves-up. And a break of the low. TJ.
DeleteYuck more downside movement this is tricky! I was expecting a bounce into the alligators mouth. Balance line sits at about 515 spy daily. Maybe some support 2-20 we are near those lows.
DeleteES 4-Hr: for the moment I am back to the more conservative channel count rather than the expanding diagonal. I think the lower low has just ruled out the expanding diagonal.
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Wave B might be a flat, double-combination, or flat-x-zigzag. In short, it could be awful, but it might eventually go back up to the upper channel boundary.
TJ
Call me crazy, but... "Houston, I think we have a bottom."
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Sorry Charlie, no bottom for you!
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DeleteThis Wave 5 is super complex! I am seeing multiple fractal dimensions of triangles paired with zigzags.
DeleteJust to illustrate what I am referring to:
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This pattern also seems to be repeating at lower time frames!
Btw,if we are in a W3 down now,the market should close on the low of the day. SPX 5000. will not hold.
ReplyDeleteI watch the UST bond and Japan tonight. Could yield a gap and go tomorrow morning. But could hold too.
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ReplyDeletethe present level is 23.6 percent retrace of the move from October..if its turns around here ..it may give insight to larger wave structure
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