Here's a two-block of the ES 2-Hr futures showing two ways to measure the current up move. One contains a cut-off by the channel, the other does not.
There is not a good way to decide unless/until the market decides to add more bars and we see how much higher it goes. At the time of this writing, there is not a good solid turning bar (hammer, doji, engulfing candle, etc.) to assist with a decision. We wait and watch carefully.
After the above post, this plausible count was developed looking at the weekly line chart. This count is good to 4,340 and it represents all one wave, the (a) wave of wave minute-iv, circle-iv of a larger diagonal.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - All One Wave? |
The count starts with a leading contracting diagonal wave.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
A new chart and additional commentary were added later in the day, as the wave developed. TJ.
ReplyDelete..and should 4,340.50 be exceeded higher - price at 4,330 now - then it would likely mean moving iii to that high. No good signs of a reversal just yet. TJ.
DeleteI think all nested ES counts are busted. Thinking 4 of an ED or c of an x wave triangle on the 12 hour.
ReplyDeleteYes, that's the thought process. TJ.
DeleteReminder: AAPL earnings scheduled after the close. TJ.
ReplyDeleteLeading contracting diagonal??? That's an oddity.
ReplyDeleteMost vertical weekly move in the indices I have ever seen. Other than possibly a corrective move of this year's high, all my bearish counts have been invalidated.
ReplyDeleteUnderstatement of the year! lol
DeleteIt seems like the market is has been taking stairsteps down and elevators up during the last 12-18 months. Just incredible to see and makes curious on what the underlying dynamics are causing this and the potential implications. For example is call IV more value now than put IV? Should the SKEW or the volatility IV Smile that resulted from 1987 crash needs to reverse or equalize?
Above my paygrade. Have a good weekend all!
SPY 30-min: with the move past 4340 in the ES futures due to the payroll report, here is another variation on the "all-one-wave" signature, perhaps it is x⑤, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qSmyyiH9/
Just as was the case yesterday, nothing says it's over. Reversal candles and trend line breaks/back-tests needed.
TJ
SPY 30-min: with the move past 4340 in the ES futures due to the payroll report, here is another variation on the "all-one-wave" signature, perhaps it is x⑤, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qSmyyiH9/
Just as was the case yesterday, nothing says it's over. Reversal candles and trend line breaks/back-tests needed.
TJ
If this is an A wave, looks like its size suggests it must be part of a wave of the same degree as the wave down off the high this year. We also have series gaps to the upside, which typically end, or start bullish runs.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: SPY Services PMI came out a little weaker than expected. Next relevant trend line drawn in. A break would best occur with 'full' candles below it - if/when it occurs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/b1Y8YhSq/
TJ
flexibility is key .. one way to count completion is shown in black, and one way to extend is shown in red. Calm, patience and confirmation suggested.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BPxCyBTv/
TJ
if it's X does that mean Z after? I'm still thinking we get to the head and shoulders target of 4050 and a Z would do it.
ReplyDeletein other words, can the larger count be WXYXZ
DeleteES/SPY marginal new high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: think the bots know where that trend line is? All morning not to break it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LYzrVc1q/
TJ
..can still be new highs if they want to recapture it. TJ.
Delete..maybe a diagonal to finish off v?, but not below 4,365. And a diagonal is not required. TJ.
DeleteWondering if move up changes the overall count in that it is corrective.
DeleteSee below. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: here is that next higher high. They can't resist.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/e9PN8agP/
Diagonal is 'possible' not assured.
TJ
SPY 5-min: I would prefer the pattern hold 437. But, an alternate is listed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/T6tYtgrK/
The preferred count is because of what appears to be a triangle. Get below the triangle at some point, and there might be something there.
TJ
SPY 5-min: RSI dropping below 50 with lower trend line breach. Watch the wave lengths 4, in an alternate, cannot become longer than 2.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UL8pc8Zw/
TJ
..down wave now too long to continue contracting diagonal in the red alternate.
DeleteTJ
..just to clarify, it is the red alternate that has invalidated below because red 4 would be longer than red 2. But ...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ihV6nB3S/
You could still have a diagonal where the high so far is now red 3 and black 2 goes back to 11 AM. That one would invalidate below 4,368.50. We're a ways from there yet.
SPY 5-min: here is that new alternate red count in SPY and the invalidation of red 4. Watch the prior low - already below that likely triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6Zoy2uVB/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now below that prior low. Good luck everyone. Watch invalidation.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qxDopbh4/
TJ
Does it violate any of Elliott's rules to count the move from 27 July to 27 October as a Leading Diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qiNUCFUI/
Yes. That way, but not the way I will show tomorrow. Stay tuned. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ