Tuesday, November 14, 2023

Current Up Count

The ES 4-hr chart (close-only) is below. This is just so the form of the wave can be studied. At present, the lack of a retrace beyond 38% suggests the wave is a zigzag being counted as a,b,c.


The count remains in place until/unless there is evidence of a fourth and fifth wave higher. On the daily chart, the slow stochastic remains embedded, and price has touched the upper daily Bollinger Band. A reminder than the PPI report is tomorrow.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

32 comments:

  1. interestingly nlNQ has a very little room for one more leg up before it will bust the ld count of going down

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  2. Over 50 million shares of SPY have traded at $450 since 2021 which ranks has the 43 highest "trade cluster" ever. In other words, it is a key level to watch.

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  3. In NQ, price came SO CLOSE to taking out the high made in July.

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  4. nas100 cash whatever it is on tradingview.com took out the high..

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  5. https://www.tradingview.com/x/4h5PNAQd/

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    1. No new high in December future and cash index. Do not rely on CDF values.

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    2. i could be wrong but i think there is one more wave left in the move that started couple of days ago so we will take out the high in futures and index also maybe by the end of this week

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    3. We don't know the future, but at least the present needs to be analyzed with reliable data and cfd quotes are not for counting waves.
      Off topic, heavy VIX Jan expiration call positions were bought today. This is not a bullish sign. Large lots of VIX calls are not bought by retail traders. And as E.T. often reminds, the S&P is already very close to the upper line of the BBs. In any case, we are in a very crazy market.

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  6. In a promotional email, Neely turned very bullish last week. It will be very interesting to see if neowave is right.

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    1. can you share/produce his count? is it the same triangle type of count he posted about earlier this year?

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    2. A running contracting triangle up, from pre-covid top. Now finished C:3 wave and going up to new highs in D:3 wave. But, with a very odd count from Oct 22 low. He starts the D:3 wave count from the Oct 22 low with an X followed by a running flat until oct 23 low, which to my knowledge is pretty surreal. Off course not elliot wave, but under neowave rules.

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    3. Logical idea FED doesn't want to crash market in an election year.

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    4. But, take a loot at 2007 october to 2008 november s&p chart. Everything is possible.

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    5. In 07 TNX peaked first then SPX then CRB

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    6. Anyone that would like to review Neely's forecast may view it here, since he made it available for free. Note (what I consider to be a strong caveat: he says the forecast is valid unless the October lows are exceeded first.)

      https://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=187

      Enjoy.

      TJ

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  7. Replies
    1. Right. Not quite there yet according to this chart.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/AZIwMRwl/

      But remember, in my long term NDX count I said a Primary Ⓑ wave, up, in this index, could 'easily' make a new high for alternation purposes. (Below is the 16 June post).

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/06/special-on-ndx.html

      In my opinion, we are dealing with 'market fragmentation' - a few key stocks according for the majority of the rise in the indexes.

      TJ

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    2. I agree. Fragmentation internally, as well as inter-index. Fragmented markets are unhealthy markets.

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    3. yes thanks tj i remember your chart

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  8. ES 4-Hr: hard to assign anything more to this index yet. Longer four and a pop for circle-five of red-c still very possible.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/btwL34n1/

    TJ

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  9. Futures showing a possible leading diagonal with AB and C up this morning after the 830 numbers. Iwm call buying is at record highs. Fed's "Mission accomplished" is the mantra on all news outlets.

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  10. Amusing. The bulls are betting on something unprecedented, namely, a bull market triggered by the end of a FED rate hiking cycle. Santayana was correct! 😊

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  11. SPY 30-min: it's all overlapping, so far. A triangle is most common, but a downward expanding diagonal could from the three-wave sequences, as well. Depends how deep the correction will be.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2p5ZEUAz/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. P.S. the expanding diagonal could be invalidated by getting over the prior highs. TJ.

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  12. TJ,
    There looks like there was a small diagonal for a possible b wave and then a c wave down. Could the bottom of that c be a C of a bigger diagonal? Can the C wave be longer than the B wave. I remember the other day you said a B could be longer on the ES but is the SPX different? I thought each wave had to be smaller than the previous wave. I guess we'll have to wait to see if it just be a A B C correction and then higher. Assuming it goes higher.

    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/nZgZ8Qr2-ABC-so-far/

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    1. ronb .. I think what you are calling 'diagonal' are triangle? TJ

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    2. Yes your right. Didn't get enough sleep last night. I mean triangles.

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    3. I'm pretty sure this count eliminates the problems.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/BExVaXJg/

      The downward expanding diagonal could be formed by (w), (x), (y) plus later (x), (z) if the blue Ⓒ wave of the potential triangle breaks lower and the triangle invalidates. Then, those legs would be counted as (i) - (v), overlapping and expanding.

      The invalidation of the downward expanding diagonal is also shown.

      TJ

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  13. SPY 15-min: the second (x), red (x) is now larger in price than the first (x); this is what would 'allow' but not 'prove' a downward expanding diagonal if the Ⓒ wave of the triangle busts. The second (x), red (x) would become (iv) of a downward expanding diagonal.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/LsYzOoaM/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. SPY 15-min: the triangle held into the cash close. Of course, the market wants to leave it unresolved until tomorrow.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/xJND0peP/

      TJ

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  14. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ.

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