Here is another take on EWI's view. It is short, simple and deals more with the wave count. (No credence is given to any ad YouTube may show with the video, particularly one for any financial product. They are not inserted by me.)
Some, but not many, ideas are given if the high doesn't hold, as per the prior post.
Have an excellent rest of the holiday.
TraderJoe
he refers to the move down from market high as a LD. how is he getting that count unless the rule of all succeeding waves to be shorter in contracting diagonal doesnt apply
ReplyDeleteNot if diagonal is of the expanding variety. :)
Deletedont think he is talking abt expanded one.
Delete..see below at 9:32 AM. TJ.
Deletethat's why i said contracting
ReplyDeleteI have written about this extensively. For example at this post.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/08/extensive-analysis-of-dow-jones.html
The people that are counting an expanding diagonal off of the all-time-high are 'breaking the rules' as the fifth wave is not long enough. It misses by just a few hundred Dow points from being long enough, but it still misses. The only "legal' diagonal I could find 'according to the rules' is the contracting one in the above link. But, due to the very short fourth wave (not a 'rule' violation - just a 'guideline' concern), the whole structure can also only be three waves down. This remains to be resolved... hopefully soon.
TJ
ES Daily - however to continue this conversation, the only downward wave that works off the July high is this 'expanding diagonal'. I have tried numerous permutations and this is the only count that seems to work. It also has a clear, unambiguous invalidation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zBP5SijP/
Further, other down counts I have tried break degree labeling definitions. This is the only count I see where the degree labels are consistent.
TJ
Thanks for your disciplined analysis and sharing your interesting chart! 🧐
Deletewelcome & thanks for saying.
DeleteTJ
thanks for your posts
ReplyDeletewelcome, TJ.
DeleteSPY 1-hr: current count. There is a possibility of a smaller and a larger triangle. A lot of these waves are in the overnight, so - as far as I can tell - the degree labeling works for either.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KYJjIIl6/
TJ
any possibility that the first triangle completed and this recent triangle is actually 4th of 5 wave move from end of october
Deletesee below at 10:05 am. TJ.
Deletewhy is the market acting this way..seems like its just buying time.. end of month maybe...
ReplyDeleteI don't know for sure, but something like this is definitely possible in SPY 15-min. This triangle points 'down' and not up. Ah, the wild world of treacherous triangles.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UviwVu4P/
TJ
Yep! Triangles are Tricksy! 😊
DeletePossible bigger triangle???
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/osk2iTYN-Possible-Triangle/
Dow (YM) futures .. still looks like three waves ( c < a ) inside of 100%. From the futures, the degree labels are acceptable.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/E4E5aVii/
TJ
Keep in mind the Principle of Equivalence for this count: a,b,c is i,ii,iii until it is not. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ