Ira Epstein (broker with the Linn & Assoc.) offers the advice that when major moving averages cross over then a higher high, or a lower low can occur and that's all the market owe's it. A couple of days ago, the 18-day SMA crossed over the 100-day SMA in a Golden Cross, and today the higher high resulted. See the ES daily chart, below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Doji Candle |
Note that today would be a Fibonacci 21+1 days since the up trend began. And the wave is more turning to the right than it seems to be impulsing. A channel formed from the low has broken lower, not higher.
So, today's candle needs to be watched to see if the initial confirmation steps of a lower high and lower low are made, and whether or not the daily slow stochastic loses its embedded status or not. The current wave count is given in the comments for the prior post.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPX sure looks like a leading diagonal down now with the fresh low into the 4540s, off yesterday's opening high.
ReplyDeleteits a mess..algos making sure to confuse the hell out of us
ReplyDeletei think we just completed ld after europe close
ReplyDeleteES would be below e wave on this idea.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/h9KDX7Q
ES Daily / 30 min: the daily chart has made the new lower daily low. First part of confirming action completed. Now it needs to make a lower high for the second part of the confirmation. The ES diagonal from the 30-minute "intraday wave-counting screen" looks like this currently.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1oZqXcTv/
Sometimes, the best thing one can do is just go out and get the groceries. Don't get confused.
TJ
even groceries wont help me :). the abv will not work for cash so perhaps a different count in cash. 4th will be longer than 2 for spx now
DeleteSPX - 15 min: I'm pretty sure this 'squeeze' count works in either cash or futures. But, futures still have room to make a more proportional diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/weW0bprd/
If futures 'do' make a lower low as part of a larger diagonal, then perhaps it will look like a 'flat' wave in cash. Patience and flexibility remain the order of the day.
TJ
ES 30-min: now an upward overlap on potential wave -1? TJ.
ReplyDeleteDiagonals seem to be the "default wave" of markets these days
ReplyDeleteSPX - 15 min: I'm pretty sure this 'squeeze' count works in either cash or futures. But, futures still have room to make a more proportional diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/weW0bprd/
If futures 'do' make a lower low as part of a larger diagonal, then perhaps it will look like a 'flat' wave in cash. Patience and flexibility remain the order of the day.
TJ
ES 30-min: only the larger potential contracting diagonal invalidated at the end of the day. The cash diagonal, and smaller diagonal in futures (stilted as it is) are still in tact. But there is something odd in that the DJIA made a 'much' higher high today while ES, NQ did not. So apply caution, I'm sure there is a way to interpret the down move as a "three" as well as a diagonal, so a lower low is still needed before a higher high to provide better confirmation of any down move. There is no assurance yet that the up move at the end of the day is over.
DeleteTJ
any chance it was an ED if previous high was expanded flat...just keeping all options open given dow also made a new high this year now. so 2 indices have made high this year.
ReplyDeleteJust saw your 4.26 post
DeleteYes, it could be an ending diagonal of a Flat, as well - just to be clear. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day, including what the DOW did today. Did anyone else notice?
ReplyDeleteTJ