From a counting perspective, the a wave up might be close to finishing up. But there is a way it could extend a tad. The SPY cash 15-min chart is below. There might be a contracting diagonal in progress.
The alternative is that perhaps a (b) wave of the larger b wave is in progress. The issue right now is that only increased downward length will begin to let us know. I, for one, would like to confirm that the a wave up is completed. It would be great to see a b wave that is between 32 - 87% of the a wave upward.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES 2-Hr: keep pinching in with new highs on RSI divergences. Possible fifth of 'a' wave. (Also possible (b) up, of b down).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hVkJ3XJG/
TJ
SPY 20-min: with 148 candles on this time-frame, here is The Eight-Fold-Path Method. As far as I can tell, a third-of-a-third, and a fifth of a third clearly show. Further, the fourth goes below the zero line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PoMpD3HR/
Only odd thing is the time-frame, so far.
TJ
Three waves down and three waves up to 90% so far, after the high. No confirmations of any type, so far. TJ.
ReplyDeleteWhat about an ending diagonal with a truncated 5th near the close?
ReplyDeleteI'm not at the computer now, but the lengths I checked today were not valid. Also, nothing yet says upward movement is over just yet. Possible. Not confirmed. TJ.
DeleteThank you, I was thinking as an alternate to the triangle on es
DeleteTJ, a question on S&P cash. If the first down (1) wave 4818/3891 was a diagonal, what is the likelihood of 1 of (3) from 4607 also being a diagonal? If low probability, then does the overlap at 4335 by the current upleg from 4103 suggest we are still in a complex wave (2) to take up more time and possibly a retest of the 4607 July high?
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is here is the market's current weekly geometry. Much bigger money than mine makes these waves. Who am I to argue with it? Was there a 'deep retrace' following the diagonal? If so, why would it need to go higher? Is a diagonal downward allowed as wave 1 of (C)/(3)? Definitely.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NSJ5Mhi8/
If there was 'one' market leg down in a bear market - regardless of form - should there be at least one leg more? There should. Should SuperCycle IV take as much or more time than SuperCycle III? It could and 'often' should.
TJ
Thanks Tj,
DeleteOn a lighter note- you have asked so many questions:) It is our job to ask question's.
Having said in simple terms to understand that the deep retrace MAY be not over yet and that is why you have kept (b)/(2) at 4607? Can the retrace go past the ATH and still be called a retrace after diagonal?
@manu .. no, a deep retrace is limited to the all-time-high. TJ.
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteSo wait, you have abandoned the count in the post below?
http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/10/why-nested-count-still-works.html
Or the chart above was only a hypothetical answer to the question posed by Novice?
Thanks
bro you dont need tj answer that..you should know its busted
Delete..correct, busted. TJ.
Delete@grr.. see the second chart in the prior post. TJ.
DeleteThank you bro ;-)
DeleteSPY 30-min: here is the detail of what I have at the highs. The SPY made the 105%+ level which (according to the Elliott Wave Principle) is more than enough for an expanded (..or even a Neely 'extended') Flat wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CSEhKZAF/
The blue labels are tentative as I'm not sure today finishes the (b)-3 wave up, but it might. Again, I would like to see a 38 - 87% 'b' wave lower before the c wave up of wave (iv) of a daily expanding diagonal. So far, there does look like an impulse lower.
TJ
how about ending diagonal more obvious is futures now we are in the 5th of ed..one more high close to 4400 (will hit some time today)
Delete4400 in spx
DeleteGold may have completed a flat this morning.
ReplyDeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteLooking at the SPX could you count this as being a potential ending diagonal?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/6RvrssU5-Ending-Diagonal/
..'possible' but only if the 3-to-4 wave is a "three" and not a "five". Can also be a triple-zz (b) wave, if it goes further. Again, there are no confirmations yet, and one has to be cautious, flexible and patient. TJ.
DeleteOne could have two interpretations of the down wave, as follows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pzgIarQy/
So, I think - for the moment - these are 'throw-away-waves', and are likely not tradeable until through the wave counting stop at the high, or the morning low. Someone with some money has to take a stand somewhere.
TJ
..well, well.. looks like some decisions are being made.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/C7S0o4Zg/
TJ
fyi - just an item of news affecting the 'Smart Money'.. from Reuters.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-asks-brokerages-curb-leveraged-stock-trades-sources-2023-11-09/
TJ
SPY 15-min: by 'rule' down wave just became too long to be included in contracting diagonal as it's fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8paFizzL/
TJ
ES 4-Hr: here is the main count as wave 'a' of (iv) based on time-elapsed in (iv). I think we all acknowledge there is a 'wedge component' at the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FOZW5b1a/
The alt view has to be this is somehow a zigzag with red (iv) at the high. ES is making lower lows as this is written. 'maybe' there was a 'failure' for wave ⑤ at just below the high. I am flexible and willing to go that way.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ