Did you ever wonder why the NDX (NASDAQ 100) index did not make a new low in March 2020 like many of the other major indexes did? Well, I think now we know. We must tip our hats to the very sombrero looking wave-count below which can be (5) waves up, even if a new high is not made. The chart is the 2-Weekly chart of the cash NDX.
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| NDX - Cash - 2 Weekly - Five Up |
The wave count is awful, but with today's 'five up' in this index the conclusion seems inescapable that there is a five-wave sequence upward - even though some of the segments look like three-wave sequences - and even count better in other indexes as three-wave sequences.
But we must count what we see, and wave (4) is at the 50% retrace level without overlap on wave (1). Further, the recent five-wave sequence up is well over the 78% retracement level of the prior high-to-low which is certainly within the allowable truncation zone. So, even IF price doesn't go up over the wave (3) high - which it certainly may - it would count as an Intermediate (5), up.
The key item to note is the character of this index is significantly different than the other more industrial indexes. The stocks are different, so I would not attempt to count the other indexes the same until there is a good reason.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Therefore a primary degree top in the making?
ReplyDeleteLikely. TJ.
DeleteSame for SPY?
Deleteas the last five? or first five of the last five, as it looks on my charts? meaning I have it running well into Q1
Delete@vamuse and pedro .. please be patient for a bit. DIfferent indexes can top at different times. There is nothing to say other counts can't apply in SPY or DJI depending on how much of the Magnificent 7 they contain.
DeleteTJ
Hi TJ ... less concerned about determining the Final Answer (at any given moment in time), than having a clear idea of what the RANGE of valid possibilities might be (with non negligible odds). Certain folks are clinging to the bear 2 up. Others still on the B from Oct (<4607). My tools say take the even more bullish outcome seriously (into Q1). So commentary on 5th waves gets my attention -- what am I not seeing that brings this to a close sooner than later? (Other than Crazy Ivan who is unpredictable.) Personally, I'm always more focused on reading the range of options looking forward, than the rear view results (recognizing the latter feeds into the former, of course).
DeleteSPY 30-min: here is that continued count out of the triangle after the upper triangle trend line was back-tested on Friday.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4S3kozbH/
The alternate is shown below the count in red. The main count is based on the RSI peak.
TJ
the move up from low of end oct...do you see it as 5 waves or only 3 so far. thanks.
Delete..only three, so far. TJ.
DeleteTJ, can it be the B wave in the ndx?
ReplyDeletefive waves is not a B wave. TJ
DeleteTJ, When I apply your eight fold path methodology to the small cap impulse in the EWI video, I am not that impressed.
ReplyDeleteso a question with abt degrees so we know the 4th of 3 took abt 2/3 days. so the 4th wave of higher degree which might be underway now will have to exceed 2/3 days time? thanks
ReplyDelete'could exceed'; not required to. You can not count degrees backward-in-time, only forward. TJ.
Deletebtw one way i see ndx completing 5 waves from oct low starting with ld
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UViIwRy3/
Hello TJ, if you have some spare time, can you please tell whether the last movements of the Dax futures (trading view) on the daily chart is a 12345 impulse or an ABC instead. Many thanks and regards.
ReplyDeleteI looked this over. First, no one can remove all risk of trading. That is 'really' what your question is getting at. The only guidance I can give is this: waves 'usually' end with a "five". The prior wave is shown. Note than in the prior wave, wave ④ did not overlap wave ①. Therefore, there is a risk that the 'scruff' at the bottom is a truncation of a wave ⑤, and not a new wave 1 up. Therefore, the up waves - in that case - would only be three waves. Chart link below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WxCol1HE/
Then, too, although one could claim there is a 1.618 relationship from the 'scruff' to the first wave peak up. But when the following waves are considered as three large waves, then there is not yet a 1.618 relationship.
All of which is to say Elliott Wave 'does not' and cannot reduce all risk of trading. But it is sometimes helpful to look for truncations at lows and highs.
TJ
Thanks TJ, always precious those insights. I keep learning
DeleteSPY 1-hr: still no downside confirmations. Might be slosh waves prior to the holiday.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TseFP4Bb/
'May' triangle or just rebound to the high. Again, the alternate is in red, and would be there is a top in place.
TJ
nice call
Deletethx! TJ
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: another potential triangle (or it may morph into a diagonal). Either way, slightly higher highs could occur.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TnTF2rID/
The previous alternate count is no longer an issue and was removed.
TJ
TJ, Wanted to say how truly thankful I am of all your teachings and analyses over the years. Words do not do it justice!
ReplyDeleteI hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving and weekend.
Thanks BBR, you as well! TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ