Still on Track

ES futures prices were lower overnight and made a lower daily low keeping the swing-indicator headed downward without indicating a trend, lower. Prices remained below the 18-day SMA and the daily bias remained negative. However, after two consecutive days outside of the lower daily Bollinger Band, prices did creep back inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes. Remember, price tends to close outside of the band only about 5% of the time. The daily chart is below.

ES Futures - Daily - Back Inside the Band

The daily slow stochastic is still in over-sold territory and has not yet embedded. The Bollinger Bands continued to widen to the downside.

From an hourly perspective, there is no proof of anything yet - although there may very well be a 1.618 wave downward, as below, with 120+ hourly candles on the chart.

ES Futures - Hourly - A 1.618 Wave

As is typical, the primary question now is whether an adequate fourth wave, up, forms, and then whether a fifth wave lower forms after that. Already the Elliott Wave Oscillator is back above the zero line in some very compressed action today. Recall, the exact location of wave iii depends on how many one-two's you see on the 14th. It is not as clean as one would like.

Keep in mind it would take a daily higher high candle to even temporarily turn the swing line up enough to say there is a point from which a trend lower could develop. So far, that has not yet happened.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe