While we are doing our level best to count waves downward, the potential four-hour triangle in the ES futures is still just barely alive at the end of the session. If the triangle breaks down further, it could become a barrier triangle. If it breaks down even further than that, it might morph into a contracting diagonal.
We are 'expecting' downward waves. They are occurring. We continue to do our best to count waves in accordance with the rules. Today, before a wave surprised on the downside a bit, we warned twice that there are ways the waves could just crumble. It's a bear market and today some waves did fall apart. One of those charts that is falling apart more is that of AAPL as shown below in the weekly chart.
In the last couple of days AAPL has broken the prior weekly low. Just be aware of it. It has a lot of influence on a lot of stock averages.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Watching if this is the b wave of ii on ES.
ReplyDeleteI think it is. Then the 'c' wave picks up some energy from the year-end cash flow the first week of January. Then comes wave 'iii' of 'C'.
Deletepost a chart please
Deletehttps://imgur.com/yeVjslE
DeleteWeakness in Apple reflects the current Covid chaos in China. Most U S companies are not so exposed. Due to its weight in the major indexes, AAPL may make the market look weaker than it actually is. $INDU has been quite strong lately.
ReplyDeleteActually, there could be a good buying opportunity in Apple coming up if wave 'iii' materializes. The CCP has abandoned its zero-covid policy. So everyone will get sick now (hopefully somewhat ameliorated since they have all been vaccinated with China's mediocre vaccine) and 99% will recover over the next two to four weeks. After that, the Chinese economy will rebound out of its Covid lockdown slump just like ours did after most of our citizens got vaccinated. That should start showing up in Apple's Q2 and Q3 results.
DeleteI continue to watch your site daily, great information.
ReplyDeleteNow is a good time to take a look at the Advance-Decline lines.
The cumulative A-D typically diverges with the major indexes at major tops and bottoms, i.e. the breadth of the market that is falling is either improving, against the price trend, or continuing to deteriorate. You can see it happen in late 2021 on the weekly. As of a couple of weeks ago, there is no bottom divergence forming on either daily or weekly charts. Market breadth went from a 'maybe' to firmly down.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NAAD
The triangle idea looks solid as of this morning, thank you 🙏
ReplyDeleteES 2-Hr: downward wave ((D)) did 'not' make 90%; just saying. I would put a wave counting stop above ES 3,875 for the triangle; otherwise, the next possibility is a double zigzag second wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Qif00TTk/
TJ
whoops! 3875 is just the prior b wave of (C) .. nothing has invalidated yet. Sorry. Didn't have enuf coffee this morning. Lol! TJ
Delete..still, a reversal candle is needed to better suggest the triangle is still in progress. No sign of that, 'yet'. TJ.
Delete..now at 78.6% of the prior down wave (C). TJ.
DeleteES 2-Hr: this is the better depiction in the two-hourly futures.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RKoUeYOU/
'Typically' the ((E)) wave does not stop 'dead on' the trend line; overshooting or undershooting by a bit. It is already overshooting on this chart.
TJ
ES 30-min: let's see if the candle at the high - which is a spinning-top candle - is validated with substantial closing lower lows. It is also currently an up fractal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Sj8NY4v4/
TJ
ES 30-min: outside range bar with lower close, and slight break of prior fractal low. Starting to look like confirmation of the spinning top. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: next step is to see if the slow stochastic loses the 80 level in the overnight. TJ
DeleteES 30-min: here is the outside range candle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/o7bawWmn/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ