Some better signs are beginning to appear that the minute ((b) wave, circle-b, on the ES daily chart below may indeed be over. Today, we had a lower low below prior lows and below the parallel which was modified slightly to account for last week's lows.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Below Modified Parallel |
The MACD indicator also confirmed its divergence with a lower low. Even though that is the case, price is not too far away from the lower daily Bollinger Band, so it might be bumpy for a bit. It would be helpful to see a countable impulse or diagonal wave to establish the trend downward.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteIf you could only pick one for wave counting would you pick the MACD or the Awesome/Elliott Oscillator?
ReplyDeleteI used the MACD above because there are less than 120 candles (at 42 candles) on the chart as needed for The Eight-Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse. The EWO is used for counting. MACD just for divergences. TJ.
DeletePrice bounced at the demand (support) zone in cash at $387.91, watch for a potential retrace and overlap at $399.07, supply (resistance) zone from $397.71 to $391.93
ReplyDeletelooks like a triangle on small times frames overnight was completed. If 1-3 waves are complete, 3 is not 1.618 of 1.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: this looks pretty good as a third wave, with the divergence at the low for the EWO. Of course, new lows 'could be' made fourth wave - as in a running triangle - but not required as wave blue ii certainly 'appears to be' a flat wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a8a7Vxm8/
TJ
ES 1-Hr does have a lower low. Looks for these possibilities a) expanded flat that 'does not' fail. This would alternate with blue ii that 'did' fail. The alternation would be in the failure mode, b) running triangle, c) next impulse if the wave is moving out to the 2-hr or 4-hr time scale. Consider this one last - in my experience. TJ.
DeleteZooming out, SPX is nearing 23.6% retrace of bull market that began 03/2009, and 38.2% of move up from covid low in 03/2020. Will dip buyers emerge?
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 15-min: in this first link a third wave iii, can be seen to have a 1.618 extension (not quite like futures, but cash doesn't 'start' where futures do). And this is true even if the highest high in wave ii is not considered, but the end point of the failure is used for the measurement,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VqIXQX34/
So, in this second link, we should try adjusting the channel downward and simplify it a bit.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Hx16YyIP/
If a fourth wave begins in earnest, then look for a 38 - 50% retrace on wave iii. You might want to have a 'range' depending on whether you pick the highest high of ii or the failure high of ii.
TJ
Gold wedge backtest in the works.
ReplyDeletehourly looks like falling wedge with building rsi divergences, maybe today is one big bear trap.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-min: here is the signature of a beautiful expanding diagonal. Could be leading or could be ending. Look at the EWO, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K4PNuDHL/
Watch the low carefully.
TJ
diagonal was leading; there are up waves after it. TJ.
DeleteSPY 3-min: diagonal converted to impulse beautifully; no overlap in 4. Wave degrees for comparison purposes only.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hAlfNipp/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ