Overnight, ES futures prices were marginally higher but failed at the 100-day SMA shown as the green crosses in the daily chart, below. In follow-through selling to yesterday's down move, prices continued falling overnight and then began tracking on the lower daily Bollinger Band. New lows were made after the cash open and then prices began to get very compressed and began oscillating, trying to rally into the close but giving much of that back.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Battle at the lower band |
The bands are just beginning to be pushed outward by price. The daily slow stochastic is in over-sold territory, the bias is down as prices closed below the 18-day SMA, and the first target of the lower band was hit. The ES spent much of the second half of the day fighting a battle at that lower band.
From a wave-counting perspective, we can see today as possibly ending a small degree third wave, with possibly a small degree fourth wave up to follow.
A good question will be whether the slow stochastic converts to embedded status on the down side at some point in the future. It has not started that process yet.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
ES 1-Hr: it looks like we're getting into 4th wavy stuff with the EWO now above the zero line. This can go on for a while if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GGI1FYbu/
TJ
SPY cash 15-min: just be aware something like this is possible in cash to get price over to the channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cfGLlLog/
The structure in cash (expanding triangle) might just be an expanded flat in the futures due to the extra waves, and extra prices made in the futures that do not appear in cash.
TJ
on the 15 min cash SPY, looks like it morphed into an ending diagonal
ReplyDeleteES futures 45-min: nothing wrong with a running triangle in the futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/81kuh0EP/
Only concern: maybe we are still in red 'iii' (as an alternate, in other words different time frame).
TJ
ES futures 45-min: here is a chart note about the alternate red wave iii count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JhULxHYS/
See the red note at left.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ