Chairman Powell and the FOMC lifted interest rates 0.50% and got prices back down to the 18-day SMA temporarily. Then prices bounced back part-way. The daily chart of the ES futures is below.
The daily Bollinger Bands are still going sideways. The daily slow stochastic has lost its over-sold reading and is now neutral, as well. The daily bias is modestly positive. And the swing-line is mixed with a lower low and a higher high.
Today's bar made a downward overlap on a prior up bar from four-days-ago.
From a wave counting perspective, the minute ((b)) wave still has options but today we only counted three-waves-down from yesterday's high (so far). It's possible a top is in place, but downward acceleration would be needed for that.
So patience, calm and flexibility are still needed until waves are long enough in either direction to make more sense of them.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
We never quite reached the. 618 up from the CPI down wave. Holding the 18ma today seems to hint they want to get there to trap bears. It's all traps this week and I'm enjoying it.
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj,
ReplyDeleteAlways confused on the optimism when the entire yield curve is inverted.
ReplyDeleteSPY 4-Hr: possible we will get the breakdown after a triangle. Let's see. This count fits well with degree labeling, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rWtn2y5U/
TJ
SPY 15-min: because yesterday's tentative base-channel held, I am temporarily counting impulsively lower until that becomes not possible. Note, where the 'real' wave ii is by degree labeling - otherwise yesterday's mid-day up wave is too long in price - and note that the wave-counting stop has been lowered to the failure.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EhsDAhfP/
I'll agree - it's a mess and a-half.
TJ
Looking for gold wedge backtest. Come on Santa, I have been very good.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: now that the breakdown low of 390.15 (see SPY 4-hr chart, above) has been broken lower, move the wave-counting-stop to the typical 'impulse overlap' warning level.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XdMnUKev/
I am well aware that yesterday's structure "could have been" a triangle, but it doesn't look too much like it has the right look. So, I'm still counting impulsively for the moment. But, if overlap isn't avoided, we may have to switch to a diagonal count.
TJ
..also note that since ((3)) within blue iii is longer than ((1)) of iii, that ((5)) of iii 'could be' any length. Watch carefully to see if it exceeds the length of ((1)) of iii.
DeleteTJ
..further note, that I am pretty sure to have that upward ((Y)) wave, currently shown as ii, be the upward ((C)) wave of red triangle b would break the 'rules' because in a contracting triangle ((C)) must be shorter than ((A)) up - the current location of ((W)). Therefore, the red count is only an alternate at this time, and it may, in fact, break the rules and not be possible at all.
DeleteTJ
If daily ES-mini takes out 3914, it negates the uptrend with Ira's swingline study, I believe.
ReplyDeleteDaily SPX cash already has a higher high and a lower low, and is void of trend.
ReplyDeleteNow that 3914 has been exceeded lower, the daily ES-mini now has a higher high and a lower low, and is void of trend.
ReplyDeleteYM under e wave on running triangle.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ