We were expecting upside movement today in form of the continuation of a fourth wave, higher. The ES 2-Hr chart, below, shows the current count. It's good as far as it goes.
With price at the 38% retrace of wave iii, it is an excellent place for wave iv to have ended. We got some indication of that in the prior post by seeing a potential ending expanding diagonal which was fully retraced in less time than the wave took to form (see LINK here).
So, we would expect a fifth wave, v, to begin in earnest tomorrow - perhaps on the unemployment claims data. Time will tell.
Any down movement today - even off the high - was still slow and halting. Someone is keeping a consistent bid under the market: for what reason is unclear. The pre-holiday trading is now a bit lighter.
There is really no reason to look at alternates other than for the exercise because there is no upward overlap and price is not over the 50% retrace level. If we do get a surprise move upward, I could see how the low on the 19th might be wave an alternate i, and a further up move might be wave ii. It just depends on if that extra wave is present at the high or not. But let's see how it goes first.
Today was a higher high day. and does move the swing-line indicator higher on the daily chart - at least temporarily.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
As you said, the count seems to be "on Track". The speed and magnitude of today's wave seems to confirm that the fifth is starting. Thank you Joe for posting your work.
ReplyDeleteWelcome 6Q. TJ.
DeleteES hourly - opening chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6858fWI9/
TJ
ES hourly - S2 pivot level has been reached, and even exceeded a bit. Added S3 level.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FF87j7vE/
TJ
Are we possibly entering a 4th wave here?
ReplyDelete30min cash SPY reminds me of an island reversal?
ReplyDeleteWondering what you are currently thinking as to magnitude and duration of wave v. Economy has been fairly strong despite the Fed's rate hikes. So we should see strong cash inflows into the market the first week of January. Indexers like to buy when the market is down (or so they say).Maybe that will be wave (b).
ReplyDeletesee post @ 12:48; no .. next wave up would be a (ii), not a (b). We should be in overall ((c)) down, and it may impulse. This is (i) of ((c)). TJ.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteES 2-hr: is now through the low. Wave v confirmed in whole or in part. TJ
ReplyDeleteES 2-hr: 'typical' wave v target is v = i or 3,765 futures; after that is v = 0.618 x net (i through iii). See chart with target below the current low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JA62G1wb/
TJ
Thank you!
Deletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteLower bb reached on spy as well 🙏
ReplyDeletecould we get a potential ending diagonal here? there's almost no subdivisions to speak of on this wave 5.
ReplyDeleteWell, the fly-in-the-ointment is that while the DJI made a new low, just like the ES and the SPY, the Dow futures (YM) did not. And that is curious. 'Maybe' a triangle or diagonal will form for that reason, but not required. TJ.
DeleteMerry Christmas to all!
ReplyDeleteMerry Christmas! 🎄
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ