Is the diagonal already complete, and now morphing into an impulse? Here is the ES 30-minute chart with this wave counting idea shown. The symbol x i means the first wave would be the extended wave, the longest wave in the sequence in price.
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| ES Futures - 30 min - Completed Diagonal Morphing to Impulse? |
When looked at using the futures, the third wave of the diagonal ((3)) does not look as awkward as it does in cash with this count. The fifth wave of the already completed diagonal ((5)) would have stopped short of the lower expanding diagonal line - just as the literature reports several do. Although I am showing a close-only chart so that form may be studied, the idea has been checked on OHLC charts and it works there, too.
The very substandard second wave retrace (less than 38%) would fit with a second wave only if the first wave is the extended wave in the sequence. So far, wave iii is shorter than wave i.
We would now be in the fourth wave iv in the overnight session. If the diagonal is now morphing into a true impulse, then overlap should be avoided as indicated. Otherwise, a larger diagonal is likely being formed. But if a true impulse results, it has some benefits a larger diagonal does not.
Have a good rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Wave 2 appears also an atypical diagonal correction at under 38%
ReplyDeletePossible 5th wave would also have to be shorter than 3, thus opening the door for larger upward second wave...yikes!
ReplyDeleteIf this new wave count scenario plays out, a larger upward second wave would be a good re-test of the trend line break.
ReplyDelete4hr rsi is on the floor again so I think this may be correct. Also lots of support at 3900. Thank you
ReplyDeletetriangle today before jobs?
ReplyDeleteES 45-min (for 120 candles); something like this might provide the likely alternation between waves ii and iv. Wave ii - a simple sharp; wave iv - a complex flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/e9HvdoC9/
TJ
ES 5-min: they are doing their best to whip, daze, and confuse.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JEr2mxqy/
TJ
ES 5-min: if the last wave was (3) of a diagonal, then, the down wave for (4) is unfortunately good down to 3,928. Beyond that level lower and the top may have been made in a narrower wedge.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mepLHlfR/
TJ
ES 5-min: good-bye 3,927; this wedge appears to be the correct one based on measurements.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1nSsApQ3/
TJ
Looks like plan is to execute 5 d...own into the close...
ReplyDeletePlease discontinue with the dispensing of advice. You have no idea of the risk tolerance of others, and such advice contradict's Ira's. Ira might say "the Smart Money may take profit near the lower daily Bollinger Band. But taking profits is A LOT different than buying naked longs." TJ.
DeleteWhat advice TJ. I simply ecpressed based on the wave count you posted. Please don't be ridiculous.
Delete'own into close' IS NOT, 'take profits into the close'.
Delete..and 'typically' Elliott trades are done on waves 1,3,5, and C, not on 2, 4, A, B.
DeleteTJ
In case you are not familiar with Ira's guidelines for trading, I posted a synopsis of them back in Nov of 2015 (remove the s from https: if you need to).
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
Also, here is the daily chart for today which would go along with those guidelines. Ira is a broker and has clients. The reason I trust the guidelines is that he likely would lose his clients if he did them a disservice. Further, you can follow his nightly advice on YouTube to supplement wave counting.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rlNw9pjv/
TJ
ES 45-min: from this chart, there 'should be' a max for this wave of 3,869 IF v is to remain shorter than iii. It 'can' end sooner if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1zn5TiDe/
TJ