Friday, July 29, 2022

Closer Still

At today's high of 4,144 the ES futures got closer to the target level for Minor wave 4 in an Expanding Diagonal count. Here is the daily chart updated for the new prices, and to show some levels.


We will note that minute ((c)) = 1.618 x minute ((a)) does get prices to the target area. Further Fibonacci expansions are possible too, such as ((c)) = 2.00 x ((a)).

Remember, Monday is the first day of the new month with potential inflows from pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, dividend reinvestment schemes, etc.

As always, diagonals are lower probability patterns that must form correctly in every detail. Importantly, the Minor wave 2 high may not be crossed or that would be an invalidation of the pattern.

Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend,

TraderJoe

25 comments:

  1. FSLR (wkly)(1x1) Reg div (hidden) outlier - sometimes you just have to take the good with the bad -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/xugfyjxww5tjqrp/FSLRrdh1x1.PNG/file

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  2. It's worth noting a couple of prominent SPY cash gaps. These are more difficult to discern on the futures charts.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2FrQeemA/

    TJ

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  3. is minor wave 5 expected to take more time to complete than minor wave 3?

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  4. A - line vs bar for clarity -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/kk94wobdzwgqmcu/intofocus.PNG/file

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  5. $$$(qtrly)(0.5x1) - reg div (hidden) - these occur on all time frames

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/6clhyo8ggmoguo9/DXYqtrly0.5x1.PNG/file

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  6. SPY 60-min: some analysis, measurements, degree labels, and alternates. One notes the largest retrace in 'time' is less than 38.2% in price.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/AJasDZjN/

    So, are we making the extended first-wave type of wave (which technically can go longer, as (iii) = 0.786 x (i) and it 'could' go to 99%) and will the fourth wave form a wedge? Or will the minute ((c)) wave, circle-c, form a diagonal with the red a,b,c up count?

    Remember, Monday is the first trading day of the new month.
    TJ

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  7. Does time/duration of the move up offer any insight into which option might play out? Thanks for the analysis

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    Replies
    1. The primary count is currently based on the degree violation that would occur if red (i) became longer than minute ((a)), off to the left-hand side of the above chart. Since that clearly appears to be a degree violation, the primary count assumes we are now in minute ((c)) as an impulse rather than a diagonal. Only if the (iii)/ c wave becomes larger in price than the (i)/ a wave would it appear that something different is playing out.

      TJ

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    2. do you see the expanding diagonal in the chart it would be alternate and doesnt have a limit on current wave being wave 5. i ii (i) (ii) are first 4 waves

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    3. no overlap on wave i in cash, so not at all likely at this time. If (iii) becomes longer than (i) - which we are not close to yet, then a (iv) could downward overlap. But that is a long, long ways away yet so I was not going to bring it up at this time. I did see this second 'possibility' but it is too far away.

      TJ

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  8. IDRV (0.25x1)(0.25x3) - Two views

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/u4l9nhvxyxc8g1t/Idrvboth.PNG/file

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  9. SPX stocks above 50ma - for data available [if interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ct16ej050hpmfcx/above50%25282%2529.PNG/file

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  10. RBLX (dly)(0.5x1) - Combining - [if interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/rxf4k5n5o3mnbru/RBLX.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
  11. AAPL (wkly)(dly)(1x1) - A transition from short to long, a close up look -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/1l5uak1swbf7et5/AAPLviews.PNG/file

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  12. ES daily: neither RSI, shown below, nor daily slow stochastic are diverging at this time.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wvgB995t/

    TJ

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  13. ACHC (dly)(wkl) - Bear market, pullback, or both?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/dbk71smh8jx5j44/ACHCdly.PNG/file

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/ofb7he499vxu4xq/ACHCwkly.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. The depth of the pullback being so shallow is trouble-some in a more balanced view. I can see how price can continue higher if red 3 gets longer than red 1. But a potential diagonal count (even if 'leading' diagonal) might also suggest a pullback is due in the black count.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/WTw7Jlwp/

      Again, I can see both and nothing different in direction would be indicated until there was a clear a 'five-down' to start a possible trend lower.

      TJ

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    2. Here is another possibility which would give the shallow and short correction more time.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/vCv7EsPD/

      TJ

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    3. So, it is hard to understand what you are trying to accomplish with such a chart.
      TJ

      Delete
  14. ES/SPY new daily high. Fund inflows. TJ.

    ReplyDelete
  15. HYG/IEI - credit spread (current) [if interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/38bc8cymrg1xnxb/hygiei.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete