As the chart below shows today is about the limit for wave (iii) in a diagonal count to the minute ((a)) wave. It is almost 90% of the first wave. It should not become longer. As of today there are three-waves, including the needed higher high for wave (iii). Further, within (iii), c = a. Cash and futures are in-synch on the wave. But a fourth wave should begin around now or we are looking at different structure.
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| SPY Cash - 2 Hr - Possible (iii) of Diagonal |
The structure at the top (inside the green trend lines) is very wedgy and might be indicating an interim high for the pattern. If a fourth wave - minuette (iv) - should begin, it should be somewhat proportional to the pattern, at least overlapping the last a wave up, and possibly even undercutting the b wave up. It should also be a zigzag to follow the rules. Let's see how it goes.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Looks good. Similar angle of descent to wave 2 ZZ looks like a tag of converging lower trend-line around 385 or thereabouts. Can anyone suggest a primer on the Tradingview charting platform? Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteGS (5x1) GS is a closely watched component of the Financial Sector. Here's what I see on the 5x1 [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/nie3gijerhcghpc/GS5x1.png/file
GDX (dly) - watch for follow through (or lack thereof) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0p7nkme2yyivscb/GDXrdh.PNG/file
Fwiw, GC printed a double close key reversal day (up).
ReplyDeleteGood morning. So far, the SPY's new high is being faded; still within limits. But watch it closely as the NQ can not be counted as a contracting diagonal (perhaps it will make an expanding diagonal) or is in the simpler zigzag count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9pXsYfwj/
TJ
Thanks for all of your analysis. Still seeing a number of Elliot Wave analysts calling this point as a minute ((ii))? In line with your analysis from Monday. Is there any possibility they are correct? Thanks again
ReplyDeleteIt would violate degree labeling; as far as I can tell, this minute ((ii)) would be larger in time than the prior second wave, so it really lowers the odds to almost nil. And so far today, we have not yet even made a lower low, so it doesn't feel all that third-wavey, yet. It's still trading very, very choppy.
DeleteTJ
SPY 1-min from the high. An awful lot of hesitation and chop so far. Preliminary base channel drawn in. Let's see if a new low forms and/or 1.618 extension.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0ttrrYM6/
TJ
SPY / ES 1-min: new low. TJ.
Deletefyi .. the up wave was a Fibonacci 3x the down wave at 47 bars v 16. TJ
DeleteNow equality in the down waves, is 1.618 next?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cOa3sJmg/
TJ
50% of the curve is now inverted which has increased the odds we are already in a recession and the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is -1.6 %. That would be back to back negative quarters. Let’s see how the 3m/10y looks after the fed meeting next Wednesday. GDP is released Thursday. Next week could get ugly.
ReplyDeleteSPY 3-min: looks to me like they missed 1.618; very choppy waves continue.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PA2a2AQd/
TJ
can you explain the placement of that ((a)) wave?
Delete..if they can do it, an equal or lower low might be for the b wave of a flat fourth wave. TJ.
DeleteDavid, do you mean the minute ((a)) wave on the main chart in the post? If so, then in order for the structure we are building to be a 'valid leading contracting diagonal', then minuette (v) of the contracting diagonal 'must' make a higher high than minuette ((iii)) - which presumably topped today. IFF minuette (iv) down forms properly as a zigzag. Then, minuette (v) of the contracting diagonal 'must' make a higher high, and it must still be shorter in price than minuette (iii). So, the minute ((a)) wave is shown at the high of where minuette (v) might top - just as a placeholder. The exact level would be determined by the interior c = a.
DeleteLet me know if that's what your meant.
TJ
Thanks for the reply. I was referring to the circle a wave in this chart -> https://www.tradingview.com/x/PA2a2AQd/
DeleteThen it should have been referred to as circle-A with a capital A. It was at the 62% retrace level, and was either an A in five waves or a W in three waves. Either way, there was a triangle after it, and then a higher high. Hope this helps.
DeleteTJ
okay yeah I fumbled this morning, I was thinking that you were trying to count a zigzag down so I was wondering why the circle-A wasn't placed at the bottom of the first wave down
DeleteNo worries. And I am trying to count a zigzag down. It must start with five waves down, and those five waves must have an internal second wave. And circle-A was a part of that second wave. The first five waves down may have finished before the close as per the chart posted below. Are we on the same page?
DeleteTJ
XHB (1x1) Is XHB suggesting the housing market may not be as bad as has been reported?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/s4pxz8lmg29ud30/xhb1x1.PNG/file
Has reversed prior to 64. Should 64 be reached subsequently, new targets to be calc'd.
DeleteSPY 3-min: there's a lower low. Nice. TJ.
ReplyDeleteGC (dly) Channel-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x9lbdoy2ww1ryrd/GCparallel.PNG/file
SPY 30-min: (fyi) .. just be aware there is a local trend line here (purple).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5U9bLVEu/
TJ
SPY 5-min: just be aware there is now contact with the upper channel line. It can pierce it by a bit if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h2mTE6uM/
EWO also indicates a possible fourth wave position.
TJ
SPY 5-min: just be very careful as this red alternate count may indicate a second wave, not a fourth wave in progress.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8G28Qjij/
TJ
yep..so far, they failed to impulse it lower at the close. If this afternoon's high is exceeded, then likely a second wave in progress.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kjhK1Ssw/
TJ
From the 12:34 3min chart, how did we finish?
ReplyDeleteThanks
https://www.mediafire.com/view/h7yop6n61blcefv/Finish.PNG/file
see above @3:52 pm .. on 5-min chart. TJ.
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