Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Beef, Chicken, Fish or Shrimp ?

Like a restaurant menu before you've had drinks, everything looks good.  Shall I have the beef, chicken, fish or shrimp? The same is The Fourth Wave Conundrum in the Minor wave 4. All we know is that if the larger move downward is a diagonal, as per yesterday's post, then, all of Minor wave 4 'must' be a zigzag. But how it forms that zigzag is up to the market. Here are some possibilities.


A lot depends on if the (a) wave up forms five clear waves, or only three clear waves, or if it forms a diagonal.

Then, it depends on if the (b) wave forms a zigzag, a Flat, or a triangle. The only thing we know for sure is that the low absolutely may not be exceeded for a zigzag to form properly.

Best of luck working this one out. Have a good start to the evening.

P.S. A test is included: let's see who gets it.

TraderJoe

21 comments:

  1. so we are going to take out some more highs before lows.... whats the probability? you must think > 50% but how high is it? this is precisely what EW is about, correct?

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  2. If 4 "must" be a zig-zag, I eould think the A wave "must" be a 5.

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    1. Finally! Good job! A flat is a Flat and is distinctly different than a zigzag! Thanks for taking the quiz, passing the quiz, and helping others to learn!

      TJ

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    2. Very welcome...you do far more teaching than I could ever hope to....

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  3. RBOB - TJ, a question if/when time permits. Thks!

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/9hh90fc9f7hp2kv/RBOB.PNG/file

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    1. Based on this weekly chart and 'degree labeling' you can argue that is indeed part of a corrective wave series (I can't tell which until/unless there is a clear 'five-down'). Note that Intermediate (2) wave is actually larger price-wise than Minor B, so the degree of the wave at that point must be larger for (2) than for B. Intermediate is larger than Minor; so a diagonal to the top fits. And a correction follows, which is then deeper than all prior corrections.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/O5FLn09n/

      Just a reminder to 'always' start your analysis with the lowest major low or higher major high, just as Neely teaches. Try not to pick a portion of it unless you have done the longer-term first.

      TJ

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    2. Also, I just noticed that wave ((iv)) of A, was a beautiful little triangle - now shown in green - which predicted the demise of the A wave.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/RN3HxEUi/

      In fact, the triangle was defeated lower, as the Minor B wave took over. And the result is excellent alternation in the A wave impulse.

      TJ

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  4. DXY (dly)(0.25x3) - current look

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/h0hkkifktzka72r/DXYtlbrk.PNG/file

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  5. GLD (2x1) - key test ahead?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/1uisea8osvwqghg/gld.PNG/file

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  6. FWIW - we have a fib turn date today from bottom of 6-17

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  7. GASO - (0.10x1) - further downside targets still active

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/owob9md2to8iops/gaso.10x1.PNG/file

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  8. There's a problem with the 2 upper counts though. The 3636-3945 up move of June counts best as a 3-wave sequence, it even has a triangle in the middle that can't be counted as wave 2.
    As the Flat was eliminated beforehand the only count remaining out of the 4 presented is the one with wave (a) as a Diagonal.

    Am I missing something here? Sure if one gets creative the up move of June can be treated as 5 waves (somehow decomposing the triangle into something else) but that seems forced to me.
    I am not trying to antagonize here, only trying to learn as everyone else.
    Thanks,

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    1. As the link below, shows, I tend to agree perfectly, and degree labeling and the 1.272 extension tend to add to the evidence.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/GkLHnsQL/

      But, Elliott wave is probability based and let's say it ups the odds greatly, probably to ~85%. But what if it's a very stubby 1 at the low, and the triangle is in a fourth wave position? Unlikely, but that would be the other 15%. Then, the whole move would be one-wave-up, as an alternate.

      I certainly have been incorrect before, and one needs to ask the question, "what might others see?"

      TJ

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    2. Thanks for the reply! That clarifies things perfectly.

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  9. Article from McClellan Fin. Pub. [if interested] -

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/a_subtle_message_in_the_volume_summation_index/

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  10. TSLA - (wkly/dly) Update to prior - (let's see if it holds/continues) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/9lcvsh2pgf2hhum/TSLardhs.PNG/file

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  11. There is a head and shoulders on the 10-year yield (TNX). If triggered it would measure to 2% so I have no idea what to make of that

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    1. Likely the fed will flip flop as the economy softens

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  12. RBOB futures have an open gap in the 2.75-2.85 area.

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  13. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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