Monday, July 18, 2022

Trend Line Noted

The U.S. equity market - as measured by the ES daily futures - ran up to the declining trend line of the acceleration channel we noted in the main count, not yesterday's alternate, and fell off. The larger down count is shown below. Today's high would be the high of minute ((ii)), circle-ii, below.


We note that if the whippy waves in May constituted a "running flat failure" then the market may be in a very weak position. This is another way to get Minor 2 to be almost equal in time length to Minor 1. If so, the upper declining trend line will likely hold on a closing basis. Note that minute ((ii)) at today's high is longer in time length than minute ((i)), and might be shorter than Minor 2 depending on which peak you pick for Minor 2. Thus, degree labeling may be preserved.

Lower lows than minute ((i)), circle-i, would likely indicate the onset of a minute ((iii)) wave, lower.

Again, breaking the trend line upward might indicate Minor 4, as per the Best Alternate shown yesterday.

Have a great start to the evening.

TraderJoe

22 comments:

  1. Circle b is bigger than capital b. Please tell.me it's a degree violation. Lower degree b wave of 2 bigger than higher degree b wave of 2, seems straightforward

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    1. The prior down wave is Minor 1. Circle-b, minute ((b)) is smaller in price & time to the prior higher degree wave in the same direction. So, no degree violation. Your comparison is to a wave 'backwards in time', i.e. not the prior higher degree wave in the same direction.

      TJ

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    2. Can you please give me the dates of the prior higher degree wave in same direction as 2 and circle b of 2? Where is the wave 2 that is a higher degree that's not backwards in time?

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    3. Please reread my comment above. ((b)) down is compared to 1, down. ((ii)) is compared to 2, in the chart above and depends where 2 stopped.

      TJ

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  2. An aside for the coffee drinkers here - I hope this doesn't play out!
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/n74rc4vqrg8ok3t/coffee.PNG/file

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    1. Here's one view of coffee's rise from the low of that base on the wkly line chart.
      https://www.mediafire.com/view/mo6u7twyib3kn91/CoffeeW.PNG/file

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  3. Good afternoon TJ and thanks or the update. Personally I think the count looked a little bit cleaner when minor 1 ended at the lower trendline...just saying.

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  4. GLD (1x1) - Observations
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/kzmspd5ydscik1x/gld10x1.PNG/file

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  5. https://schrts.co/JUKUHAYc

    NAAIM

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    1. TimH ..don't you think a brief comment to go along with the chart might help explain what you are thinking? A chart by itself is just 'data'. TJ.

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  6. On every high from June 27th, we've had a move down, then a doubletop (or slightly higher) on the next day, and then a larger move down. Today looks the same so far.

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  7. An aside - PDI (0.1x1) target analysis [if interested] -
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/bfxpcct38i7k00g/PDI0.1x1.PNG/file

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  8. Replies
    1. agreed. I have found that diagonals resolve some problems. Will update tonight. TJ.

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    2. 6/28 to7/14 . you still dont think it was a flat?

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    3. see the next day's post - which is published already. TJ.

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  9. ES (dly) Early TL break alert -
    https://www.mediafire.com/view/f7yjm4p16o4nh9m/ESdlytlb.PNG/file

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  10. ES & SPX (25x3) - updates
    https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d6c21b95b704b2f2385c20664fc1367e.png

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    1. Note the difference in resulting targets (should price reach 3950) for the SPX
      on the 1 box chart - Using the 1 and 3 box reversals together is somewhat like using multiple timeframe charts (candle/bar) -

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/ntb8v5x5x2r3418/spx50x119th.PNG/file

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  11. Looks like the alternate needs to be given more weight? Downtrend line since early April was penetrated and markets closing in on a 90% up volume day. Perhaps seeking out the top of the June 10th gap down at 4017.

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  12. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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