The U.S. equity market - as measured by the ES daily futures - ran up to the declining trend line of the acceleration channel we noted in the main count, not yesterday's alternate, and fell off. The larger down count is shown below. Today's high would be the high of minute ((ii)), circle-ii, below.
We note that if the whippy waves in May constituted a "running flat failure" then the market may be in a very weak position. This is another way to get Minor 2 to be almost equal in time length to Minor 1. If so, the upper declining trend line will likely hold on a closing basis. Note that minute ((ii)) at today's high is longer in time length than minute ((i)), and might be shorter than Minor 2 depending on which peak you pick for Minor 2. Thus, degree labeling may be preserved.
Lower lows than minute ((i)), circle-i, would likely indicate the onset of a minute ((iii)) wave, lower.
Again, breaking the trend line upward might indicate Minor 4, as per the Best Alternate shown yesterday.
Have a great start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Circle b is bigger than capital b. Please tell.me it's a degree violation. Lower degree b wave of 2 bigger than higher degree b wave of 2, seems straightforward
ReplyDeleteThe prior down wave is Minor 1. Circle-b, minute ((b)) is smaller in price & time to the prior higher degree wave in the same direction. So, no degree violation. Your comparison is to a wave 'backwards in time', i.e. not the prior higher degree wave in the same direction.
DeleteTJ
Can you please give me the dates of the prior higher degree wave in same direction as 2 and circle b of 2? Where is the wave 2 that is a higher degree that's not backwards in time?
DeletePlease reread my comment above. ((b)) down is compared to 1, down. ((ii)) is compared to 2, in the chart above and depends where 2 stopped.
DeleteTJ
An aside for the coffee drinkers here - I hope this doesn't play out!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/n74rc4vqrg8ok3t/coffee.PNG/file
Here's one view of coffee's rise from the low of that base on the wkly line chart.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mo6u7twyib3kn91/CoffeeW.PNG/file
Good afternoon TJ and thanks or the update. Personally I think the count looked a little bit cleaner when minor 1 ended at the lower trendline...just saying.
ReplyDeleteGLD (1x1) - Observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kzmspd5ydscik1x/gld10x1.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/JUKUHAYc
ReplyDeleteNAAIM
TimH ..don't you think a brief comment to go along with the chart might help explain what you are thinking? A chart by itself is just 'data'. TJ.
DeleteOn every high from June 27th, we've had a move down, then a doubletop (or slightly higher) on the next day, and then a larger move down. Today looks the same so far.
ReplyDeleteAn aside - PDI (0.1x1) target analysis [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bfxpcct38i7k00g/PDI0.1x1.PNG/file
wave 2 has taken too long
ReplyDeleteagreed. I have found that diagonals resolve some problems. Will update tonight. TJ.
Delete6/28 to7/14 . you still dont think it was a flat?
Deletesee the next day's post - which is published already. TJ.
DeleteES (dly) Early TL break alert -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/f7yjm4p16o4nh9m/ESdlytlb.PNG/file
ES & SPX (25x3) - updates
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_d6c21b95b704b2f2385c20664fc1367e.png
Note the difference in resulting targets (should price reach 3950) for the SPX
Deleteon the 1 box chart - Using the 1 and 3 box reversals together is somewhat like using multiple timeframe charts (candle/bar) -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/ntb8v5x5x2r3418/spx50x119th.PNG/file
Looks like the alternate needs to be given more weight? Downtrend line since early April was penetrated and markets closing in on a 90% up volume day. Perhaps seeking out the top of the June 10th gap down at 4017.
ReplyDeleteSee the next day's post - already up now.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ