The ES futures posted an inside day today in a whippy session. The daily ES chart is below. Another lower low candle (or more) would be more convincing for a wave (iv) of a diagonal even though there is clear overlap already.
Note the regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic was embedded as of the settle. There's lots of earnings this week, and the FED interest rate decision on Wednesday. I'm sure many a treading lightly until the dust settles a bit.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
USD - zooming in - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mir8l1bfk20vvp0/XsOs.PNG/file
T - An interesting juncture -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tg4lypyh05s4sy1/Tbothends.PNG/file
CRWD
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k1dgr8yxh47zmor/crwd.png/file
Interesting 62% retrace on linear scale. Good work. TJ.
Deletelooking at a candle chart it looks like a very clear head and shoulders pattern.
Deleteon log scale it's only 38% retracement. could we see a combination pattern develop to make the wave longer in time? it's probable
Deleteif you got y = w down would you be 'close to' or below 0? TJ
Deleteno
Deleteokay then. a double zigzag lower could be feasible, and also 'take more time', not just price than the up wave. A flat is another way to extend the time, but not below the prior low. TJ.
Deletethanks. should arithmetic or log chart be relied upon in this instance?
DeleteArithmetic charts are usually for 1 - 4 years when inflation is not a major factor over the short run. Log charts attempt to compensate for the effects of inflation starting with 5 yrs & beyond. In this case it doesn't matter too much because the only thing that can confidently say a double zigzag or larger flat correction is underway to take more 'time' is making the lower low, or making the marginal new high of a flat. TJ.
DeleteI was thinking more in regards to when arithmetic says the potential wave 2 is 38% retracement and log says it's 62% - wave 2s are typically deeper so it's like one chart seems to show wave 2 is complete and the other might imply a deeper correction is in play.
DeleteYes, it's a risk the trader takes. EW (and charting) can not eliminate all risk. 62% on a short term chart may be all there is. If a longer correction 'in time' is needed - with three clear waves down - price easily easily form the (b) wave of a flat and come back to about the same area. Again, there is no good way I yet know of to eliminate the risk.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr: triangle or Flat? Watch the level of 3,965.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/m3tzl6Ip/
TJ
ES has indeed undercut the 22 Jul low. 'Looks like' a C wave or more down is starting.
DeleteTJ
ES (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_4f39e1462e19a4a49ac8f96876edb1e3.png
ES 1-Hr: as of ES 3,933 the ES has made a valid expanding diagonal lower in 3 hr. This compares to the 6 hrs down before the triangle. Therefore, this wave down may count as a valid sub-wave (shorter in price & time).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4tBfr9cH/
Again, I'd keep a 'wave-counting-stop' over 3,965.
TJ
For learning purposes here is a picture of the expanding diagonal on the 5-min chart. There was an interior triangle for the b wave in 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8vphIolq/
All of this serves to make the market movement very whippy.
TJ
XLP/SPX - we'd like to see the conservative target reached (at a minimum) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ipryba5xpmo0bke/xlpvsspx.PNG/file
A close up look (0.25x1)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/833oy4ntk0bp4v5/xlpspx0.25x1.PNG/file
SPY 15-min: here is SPY currently. At any time a second wave higher (or more) can occur, but a second wave should not breach the upper channel trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cnRHbECG/
TJ
..and a/i and b/ii should be considered 'identically equivalent' until the market sorts that out. Yes, today's low 'could be' a 'c' wave, but the diagonal after a triangle, and the extent of the current shallow retrace argue more for the i/ii.
DeleteTJ.
..another clear possibility with a sub-wave is a-b-i, and then ii up. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: downward choppy diagonal was good for upward choppy diagonal which broke the upper diagonal trend line. Retrace is less than 50% at this point, so it might be just the 'a' wave. This is how they keep one guessing and the confidence low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W4ML9CXy/
TJ
If the bottom should break before a locally higher high, then as always, the up trending expanding diagonal would just become its triple-zigzag counterpart labeled as a second wave.
DeleteTJ
Got it!
Deletewheat looks like it's abc correction is over. Agriculture commodities no longer talked about. Possible this is a14 year cup and handle?
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-om.investing.com/data/tvc_4d005d4b2cff98272bcd89b7831c0452.png
Link does not work for me. TJ.
Deleteapologies, I checked this one and it should work - https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_fab98f6a6e29eea2e150dd2368811d7f.png
DeleteES 5-min: price is now already through the prior low, after three-waves-up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZiYBHDcG/
If there needs to be a larger correction, it could be a Flat.
TJ
I would drop the wave counting stop from 3,965 to 3,955 as a larger second wave should not exceed 78.6%. TJ.
DeleteES (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_9e2727accf714308b3f10b4701cfb990.png
It's whippy, MSFT missed top & bottom; GOOG EPS missed. TJ
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ