Nothing has changed target-wise since Saturday's wave chart post. It seems to be only a matter of how we get there. Here is the ES daily wave-chart updated from Saturday.
As stated previously, wave Minor 4 is already longer in time than wave Minor 2 as would be expected in an expanding diagonal. It would also need to become larger in price points above the 4,168.25 minimum shown. Should price gap up tomorrow, as possibly suggested in the after-hours market, then the red count - from yesterday's post - might be the one operating and we could launch into red (iii) of minute ((c)) of 4. If the price structure reverses, then perhaps we are making the minute ((b)) wave in yesterday's black count. Both counts are still active, but if price extends beyond certain limits tomorrow it will greatly reduce the right look of the contracting diagonal count.
Keep in mind that diagonals are low probability patterns that must prove themselves in every detail. In that regard, to keep the pattern intact, then the invalidation level shown may not be exceeded.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
XLP/SPX - Measured movers -
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ES,SPX (25x3) - current
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NQ (dly) - knocking on the door -
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ES 8-Hr: as far as I can tell - with a very five-wave-look to the structures price is better judged to be in the red count from two days ago. It is now the main count on the chart below.
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TJ
XHB (0.5x3)(0.5x1) - breakout -
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Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what is the likelihood of a truncation of ((c)) up? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWave minuette (v) of minute ((c)) can truncate. But, minute ((c)) itself must reach the minimum of 4,168.25 to be considered wave 4 in an expanding diagonal.
DeleteTJ
Thanks Tj, do you have an alternate count if es does not reach 4168?
DeleteBecause Monday is the first of the month - which often sees inflows from mutual funds, pension funds, dividend reinvestment, etc. - it is likely another 20 points up will easily be made on Monday/Tuesday. Therefore, I do not have an alternate at this time. TJ.
Deletehow do i subscribe
ReplyDeleteNo subscription is currently offered. This is a blog which you are free to read and or comment on. The primary suggestion is that you at least have read and digested "The Elliott Wave Principle" by Frost & Prechter, as a minimum. Thanks for your interest.
DeleteTJ
10y-yld - thoughts on possible pullback - [if interested]
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Reminder: today is the last trading day of a month which often sees month-end "window dressing", prior to possible inflows on next Monday - which is the first new trading day of a month.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ