The primary purpose of this post is to look for Fibonacci levels which may be relevant if the market continues to rise. So, both Fibonacci extension levels and Fibonacci external retrace levels are shown.
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| ES Futures - 1 Wk - Fibonacci Levels |
Readers can see there is a Zone of Confluence in a range of 4,100 to 4,155 should the market cross the 4,010 level first. The trend lines right now are dotted because the market may try to adjust them into more of a channel; either pushing out the higher one or dropping the lower one. It is objective to say that this week the market found support on/around the 1.382 External Fibonacci retrace. The market has to take out that low to say something different.
One of the most significant features of the chart, besides the current wedge, is the lack of time taken by the downward retrace waves in comparison to their upward wave counterparts. This is somewhat odd and will likely be corrected at some point. However, it is a characteristic market behavior when the FED gives permission to banks and other corporations to buy-back large quantities of their own stocks, and - make no mistake - they are doing that. For further information on this topic, you can see that even during the pandemic (second half of 2020) Corporate buy-backs are on the rise again; check this LINK.
Keep in mind that Wednesday is the last trading day of this month and this quarter, and Thursday is the first day of the new month. So, there may be the additional inflows on Thursday from company bonuses, pension funds, 401k's, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.
This is the second post since Friday, and if you haven't read the first one yet, you might like to now. Have a great rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Insider Selling/Buying -
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Taking the wave count down from the weekly to the ES 30-min level, there are several prominent features.
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First, in order to keep waves ii and iv within (i) both proportional and able to meet degree labeling considerations, we see that the high of wave b is where the cash market made it's fifth wave up. The whole length of the correction in the futures is the second wave or (b) wave.
Second, the correction itself is so small in terms of Fibonacci levels, less than 38%, that it could be a (b) wave of a zigzag; so that is shown as an alternate. But, if the upward wave does form a third wave, not a (c) wave, then it 'should be' shorter than wave (i), and the whole pattern might form a wedge. In other words, the wave (i) would be the extended wave in the series.
Third, the EWO is already higher - on a 15min or 30 min time frame - so a third wave might be ruled in, and can not be ruled out.
TraderJoe
Hello TJ, Your insight is amazing, Always appreciated! It is currently Sunday night and the Futures are down and looks like wave 4 has started. If 5 completes at a lower high, below 3978.5 set on March 18, this wave is likely wave 2 correct?
DeleteBefore trading begins (daily) -
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Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points and nearby fractals.
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TJ
First green (up) fractal back exceeded higher.
Delete..waves b & c are 78.6% legs, so it is worth watching for a triangle or a truncation.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uaxea
TJ
ES 30-min ..busting the prior b wave higher already.
DeleteES futures .. new daily high.
Delete..mebbe .. the triangle was a tad wonkier ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/uazf4
TJ
Stocks above 200ma - Observation
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There is a new fractal down (red), on the ES 30-min chart.
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TJ
Eye on the 26th opening (unfilled) gap [cash] -
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; high of the day is now verified as a valid fractal.
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TJ
ES 30 min; breaks this new fractal higher.
DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
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