On the ES 4-hr chart, so far, this pattern is holding up as it is. Price would need to get up over 3,912 to invalidate it. As long as the pattern holds, it remains as is. The best alternate at this time is for a pattern that takes even longer downward - shown in red.
The alternate comes from two items: First, there is a non-divergent low as shown by the Elliott Wave Oscillator at wave (iii) / (i). Second, it is not possible to count cash in the same manner at the futures because (iv)/(ii) is longer in price in the cash market than (ii). So, it is possible (ii) is a 'b' wave. That is not the case in the futures market.
Anyway, doing the best I can with a very choppy wave. Today price got down to the lower daily Bollinger Band. The longer pattern might allow it to get down to the 100-day SMA. The alternate might become the main count on further development.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ET, Nice job tracking this! Wonder if it's possible to finish this wave 5 up over night? Futures are on the right track, Q's don't look good IMO.
ReplyDelete..if it did, I wonder what it would mean for cash.
DeleteMight be getting a bit overworked there ET (hopefully noy under paid).
ReplyDeleteCannot be black (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) & (v) down i aform of a contracting diagonal.
Why? Because black (v) is already longer in time than black (iii).
I noticed that too .. which is another reason for the red count. I'm just not quite so dogmatic about 'time' in a diagonal. There have been very few cases to study at this degree of trend. It may very well be .. 'high' probability, and something to study to see if the larger pattern works out. TJ.
DeleteSweet.
DeleteWith the "what it looks like" caveat, NQ 4hr thoughts -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bh2E.png
DJI daily looks interesting here -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bh7u.png
We have taken out the 2/26 low, so on chart above, we now have a lower high and lower low.
DeleteQuick peek at 4hr spot gold -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bh7u.png
Wrong link. Try this -
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bhaM.png
Gold looks like a large C wave down has started on the monthly chart and everyone still seems very bullish on it.
DeleteIn addition, gold/silver ratio is reversing with weekly bull divergences, which means silver will fall more than gold. There's even more bulls in silver assuming 50 dollars and much higher this year.
DeleteThoughts on 30min NQ -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bhD6.png
👍 nice work. I’m thinking we get one more lower low. But the down TL. matched up well at this recent low. I would like to see Q’s test 300 area. ATB
DeleteVIX & VXN both touched upper BB. I think we are close.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/HIpvfzQf
DeleteThe chart speaks for itself.
Good morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivot points. The first candle since the open is currently an outside candle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u17b7
TJ
The lower low in the EWO overnight in ES does not help any contracting diagonal argument.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; there are two new fractals established at this mornings low and high. It's a pretty wide-ranging field of play at the moment. One way to count cash SPX is - since a new cash low was not made this morning - is as 'a' down of (iii). Possibility of being in a 'b' wave, up, now.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u192b
TJ
ES 30-min; up fractal has broken first. Reminder: daily pivot point PP at 3,842 and R1 at 3,870.
DeleteTJ
TJ,
ReplyDeleteDoes that mean we are going up?
ES 30-min: futures can be counted as w-x-y, up. Cash can be counted as a-b-c, up, as per the short term cash chart below. c = 0.618 x a.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dj9OX70z/
TJ
..the current turn lower occurred at the daily pivot point, PP of 3,842.
DeleteTJ
..as far as I can tell; SPX cash has the new low. Can be wave (iii) of the diagonal, provided lengths stay correct.
DeleteTJ
..ES futures have the new low too.
Delete10yr quite firm considering..Gl all
ReplyDeleteES 1-min; this is quite the impulse down; not sure where ((5)) will end up yet as ((3)) is longer than ((1)). Need to check some other lengths.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mS4LgvAY/
TJ
SPX-cash 4-hr; so as a very practical matter; SPX cash is good for a third wave down to 3,739; but probably better above 3,750. If it invalidates it is a 'true' third wave down, and we were counting in the downward direction.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MriZexlz/
TJ
just fyi -- ES 30-min S2 daily pivot is at 3,757.
ReplyDeleteWe likely get a second Hindenburg Omen today for an official signal on the clock. First was this Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to earlier NQ 30min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bibP.png
👍 I agree
DeleteSPX 4-hr; downward wave is now too long for a diagonal, and is likely a third wave or 'c' wave of some type.
ReplyDeleteA higher TF perspective, NQ 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bigf.png
1st of two Cardwell HD targets has been tagged.
DeleteFor what it's worth, cash S&P is coming up on Neely's line in the sand for the end of the bull bounce off March 2020 lows.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what that's telling us. Got a pic/chart?
DeleteThanks
If cash breaks 3694, market has topped for 2021 according to Neely.
DeleteThks!
DeleteTop 5 in SPX (equal weighted) - comments welcome
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3biqg.png
If that's the case than we will have a correction up and then wave "C"/3 down. Nice work
DeleteOnly if its correct, lol.
DeleteThanks to y'all for comments made today.
ReplyDeletepattern feels complete, or maybe I'm just exhausted
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete