After yesterday's low volume day on SPY, the market moved lower today. To make a long story short, prices got back down to within two points of the Line in the Sand, the 18-day SMA, and by the settle, refused to touch it exactly. The ES daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - Battle at the 18-Day |
The daily slow stochastic appears to have lost its embedded status. Intraday we began counting as the potential w-x-y wave upwards, and we warned blog readers to watch out for a possible failure of the y wave. From what we can see at this time that failure very well may have occurred as the ES hourly chart shows below (at the red * ).
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Failure? |
Prices hit the mid-line of the channel - which was more than 78.6% of the way to the w wave, and then fell off rapidly. This can make an excellent second wave location, (ii), for a further move lower. As long as price remains below the channel, or back-tests and fails, then a further move lower might be expected.
On the ES 30-min intraday wave counting screen, below, we note that the 3,890 level, the low of the day is a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the low. Prices overlapped the a wave up, as we said to watch out for yesterday. This created one level of confirmation in a move lower. But they have not yet taken out the lowest low of the b wave just yet. If they do, that would create a second confirmation.
Similarly, closing below the 18-day SMA might lead to a move to the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Here are a couple of charts added shortly after the open today.
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| NYSE Adv/Dec Line - Daily - Close |
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| NYSE McClellan Oscillator - Daily - Close |
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Rut saying "rut roh". Scooby doo reference for you youngsters. Thank you
ReplyDeleteKeeping my eyes on monthly. It does look ready for a bounce as it oscillates above and below the alligators mouth making higher lows and higher highs. But note the alligator is intertwined, so I'll wait for direction
DeleteThe rut? That bounce was last week
DeleteAny thoughts on Triple Q's curious lag of NDX today? Ths Qs managed a mere 1/2 % decline compared to NDX's well over 1%!
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen with daily pivot points (classic calculation) and the nearest in fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/whzpzpst/
TJ
..based on this hourly down trend line, as far as I can tell breaching it would cause problems for the 1-2 count today. That would occur if there is more than a 78.6% retrace of the prior down wave. Therefore, a wave-counting-stop should be placed above 3,932.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/u94w8
TJ
A couple of technical charts were added to the post, above, shortly after the open today. They seem pretty self-explanatory.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min, outside candle lower. I would drop the wave-counting-stop to 3,923. If that candle can't hold, something may not be correct.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u95r2
Just like on the daily chart, the intraday bias is not 'lower' until or unless price is trading below the 18-per SMA.
TJ
ES 30-min, lower-low (LL) candle, and down to 18-per intraday MA.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/u95vq
TJ
ES 30-min; price exceeded the prior high, and so the wave-counting-stop indicates 'something else' is going on; perhaps a larger w-x-y wave, up. Regardless, intraday bias did not flip from positive to negative.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr. I'm not ruling out higher highs .. like for a larger y wave. But, at the moment, this thing has triangle dimensions at 78% each way. Watch today's high and today's low carefully.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eBEuRbVH/
TJ
SPY 5-min back down to daily pivot point PP.. watch the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dp0xTgbX/
TJ
Observations on the hrly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bCPR.png
RSI now trying to bounce at 40 level.
DeleteES 5-min; SPY 5-min: good-bye b wave low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ptubj36x/
TJ
ES 5-min; SPY 5-min; upward overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q2IaKh5e/
TJ
ES 5-min; SPY 5-min; possible diagonal, but leading or ending? Only way to rule it in/out is with a new low or new high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dZp7Ht9c/
It is 'possible' the b wave could try to extend, but not below the low.
TJ
ES 5-min; SPY 5-min: start of diagonal was exceeded in less time than it took diagonal to build. True ending diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QH4APrCr/
TJ
ES 1-Hr, retraces downward 78.6% again to 3,900 area gain. Nothing says it has to stop. Below 3,890 it would just bust a smaller hourly triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u99w5
We don't 'know' the triangle will form properly yet. If it does, the ((e)) wave should get back over the mid-line, and the prior high not be exceeded. And, if a triangle does form here, perhaps it will be possible to count an Intermediate (X) wave as a complex form. That needs more study, yet.
TJ
..and if the triangle completely busts, then the opposite is the w-x-y failure shown earlier. Very tricky stuff, this.
DeleteTJ
Last to fall will be dow jones, once they see that this is not a typical bull rotation the market will dive fast and hard
ReplyDeletebased on?
ReplyDeleteES 1-Day: now below the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletePossible fifth down imho...
ReplyDeletewhats your target?
ReplyDeleteHrly HD target tagged (current plot not closed as of yet)
ReplyDeleteHave now closed below target level.
Delete3750, or thereabouts...
ReplyDeleteHrly update -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bCSM.png