Below is today's 15-minute chart of the SPY. This was being monitored for volume characteristics today - to see how robust the up wave might be. As you can see for yourself, volume was pretty darn low: some of the lowest we have seen.
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| SPY - 15 Min - Low Volume |
There are currently only three waves up in this chart from the low on 19 Mar, and they currently measure as c = a. Whether or not that relationship holds or breaks remains to be seen. However, should the down movement continue from this afternoon's high, one might watch first watch for an overlap of the a wave, up. Then, watch to see if the b wave down is broken as more signs of confirmation.
In the futures market today, we noted that ES prices had touched the underside of the potential lower diagonal trend line on the 4-hr chart. That is shown as the orange dotted line extension in the chart, below.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Back-test of Diagonal |
We indicated live-and-in-real-time that there should start to be a significant turn in that area if the potential diagonal is to play out. Prices then backed off of the high. So, the up move may be over in cash. And it may be over in the futures. But, the overnight sometimes makes a few shenanigan waves, and it might be possible for one more slightly higher high in the overnight. Prices settled near 3,932 today. If they got up and over 3,965 that would see them trading back in the diagonal, and likely be a real warning to watch for a diagonal invalidation. We'll address that situation if we see it.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Two views - hrly futures, 15min cash. Observations
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NQ (4hr) - from a pattern perspective ...
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Q’s - the battle of H & S vs. inverted H & S. A break of 324 or 310 will be telling.
DeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen updated with the daily pivot points (classic calculation), and nearest fractals.
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TJ
..note the futures do have downward overlap on the 'a' wave up.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-hr, as written previously, a double zigzag is possible to extend the 'time' of the correction.
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TJ
ES 1-hr .. just a cautionary note to be on the look-out for a potential outright failure, or possible triangle. It's getting whippy in here, and according to measurement, this morning's up wave is over 78.6% where failures or truncations can occur.
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TJ
..another whippy wave with an internal lower local low. Still nothing definitive, yet, but price declines are speeding up compared to prior waves.
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TJ
ES 30-min nears daily Pivot Point (PP), and adds new fractals.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IfkMnWaX/
TJ
ES 30-min; first fractal back exceeded lower.
DeleteES 30-min second down (red) exceeded lower.
DeleteES 1-hr. This looks correct, so far. It's a truncation top indicating a weak market ahead.
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TJ
ES 30-min, now down to S1 pivot.
DeleteChart showing ES at S1 pivot, breaking the 3rd fractal back, and adding a lot of local down fractals.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ezCIci96/
TJ
Not liking the pause at 3900. A third down should have decisively demolished it. I think a close back above would constitute a bear trap.
ReplyDelete..just saying, "there is nothing in the Elliott Wave Principle that says that a third wave must break a round number to some arbitrary level that you won't tell us". Prices did get down to 3,890 today, piercing it.
DeleteCash 5min, what I (thought I) saw today :o)
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