It has been fairly ODD lately to see an outside-day-down, and an outside key-reversal day at that. Near to the futures settle it was confirmed that this outside day down candle will hold into the settlement. The day is a key reversal day also because it is the highest high day of the uptrend.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - Outside Day Down |
At this point, while the daily slow stochastic has curled lower, it has not yet closed under the 80 level. It might. As usual, price should not take out the high of an outside day down within two trading sessions or else it can constitute a trap for the bears.
With today's lower close, the daily count shown yesterday (at the top of yesterday's post) remains the same. In terms of the ES 4-hr count, it is highly possible a potential contracting diagonal has completed. The alternate for the count has to be some kind of fourth wave.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Divergent Higher High and Drop |
Last night we said a little consolidation and a pop higher would be a nice way to finish the potential diagonal. That did occur in last night's overnight session. None of it shows up in the cash market. As shown, today's downward wave is longer in price than the wave shown as wave (ii), but has not broken below the wave (ii) position yet. It might. In order to confirm an ending diagonal, price should trade below the low of the minute ((b)) wave in less time than the diagonal took to create. The location of interest is shown on the chart. Clearly, if this occurs, the wave will also overlap the ((a)) wave, up, and that would invalidate the fourth wave of a potential impulse if some are counting one-to-five.
Should the diagonal be confirmed, then the first target for a C-5 wave down would be below A-3. A second target would be at 3,600-15 which is the 1.62 x A-3 wave, added to the B-3 wave.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
👍 thanks for counting the waves.
ReplyDeleteSure looks like an ED completion. The market has become a place of price ledgerdemsin of uncanny propotions so more new highs tomorrow would not surprise me in the slightest....
ReplyDeleteRTY (futures) daily - (Friday in progress)
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bACr.png
Good morning all. ES 15-min; one more good, solid lower low needed? Eight Fold Path Method shows just about 140 candles.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u7dgk
TJ
Failure to impulsively break 3900 for me a cautionary note for the immediate bearish case. We know how they roll.
ReplyDeletealso bull divs on smaller time frames
DeleteES 15-min; we have the lower low being registered. "Uh, Houston, I think we have an impulse here."
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u7dwm
TJ
..put an "out-rigger" on iii, and look for a divergent wave on EWO.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/u7d-x
TJ
ES 30-min, now down to S1 level, intraday.
DeleteES 15-min: There was a lower candle low at v, and the EWO is starting to turn green. Look to see if a down retrace holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u7f9f
TJ
👍 nice work
Deletebeen long time since we saw nice 8 fold path down impulse, any special significance? harder to manufacture "rescues"?
DeleteCrying at the Fed Trade Desk!
DeleteSPX cash 5min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bARj.png
👍 a lot of H & S
DeleteNice down count ET. Upward correction in progress corroborated by YM which quickly made its biggest up move since the high thus signalling a degree change.
ReplyDeleteLooking for some clues as to how much time the wave 2 up might take we can note the following:
- YM took 12 hrs from top to bottom.
- ES took 35 hrs from top to bottom.
- ES expanding wave iv triangle took 12 hrs.
- For degree purposes I will assume the current larger degree wave 2 cannot be shorter in time than the smaller degree wave iv.
- Current larger degree wave 2 is only in its 4th hour.
Therefore wave 3 down cannot start for at least another 8 hours and if wave 1 = wave 2 in terms of time then we are looking at around the cash market close on Monday noting that wave 2s more often than not take more time than wave 1s. ⏰
It would be cool to see VIX close open gap on a deep second wave re-trace.
DeleteI agree, but it maybe B wave instead of w2. I do expect next week to be down after option exp. and rebalancing out of stocks and into bonds.
DeleteThe move down could definitely be corrective. The price action around 3900 suggests to me that we do not yet have a final top.
DeleteGW thanks for the NDX chart yesterday, that head and shoulders pattern might work out if today's low isn't broke
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
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