Today's higher high waves still diverge from the EWO on the 2-Day chart. The count has not changed, and remains as shown below on the ES futures (the Dow has a slightly different count shown earlier).
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| ES Futures - 2 Day - Possible Next (X) Wave |
The advantage of this count is that is it would provide some alternation in the (X) waves if it occurs as suggested. It might also drop the lower wedge line to form a parallel with the first (X) wave. Making another (X) wave is a further way to prolong the Primary ((B)) wave in time. It is about a week away now from a full year.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJOe
Hi Joe...fwiw..I think after fed we get a retrace..perhaps 3500ish makes sense, fighting this liquidity nightmare, nasty stuff. :) . Thanks for your daily input, Gl all
ReplyDeleteA bit higher would be ideal. Sets up impu;sive breach of lower trend line and 3900 round number which would likely signal some kind of iterim top. A concomitant fill of VIX open gap around 18 would be also probative imho...
ReplyDeletejust saying .. to actually fill the VIX gaps requires going a lot lower than 18.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZI4cyAMz/
TJ
Thks TJ !
ReplyDeleteRecap of SPX (cash) 5min today - (one perspective)
https://funkyimg.com/i/3bzut.png
DJI (wkly) - this week [should] be interesting -
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Quite remarkable how bearish indicators continue to be ignored by Mr. Market. Another island reversal in NDX obliterated...Yikes!
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/kpNmKcmt
ReplyDeleteIt has room to climb.
XLU/VTI (daily) risk on/risk off ratio - risk off?
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bzxr.png
Addendum:
DeleteThe Mar low was lower than prior, reg. hidden div. on RSI. Looking to reach 60 level (or higher).
Early look at NQ 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bzF9.png
Typically when the broken neck-line fails to provide resistance on any re-trace, likelihood of the pattern's failure substantially increades in my experience. Not saying that will happen, but if it did would continue the remarkable theme of negation of bearish market signals...
DeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen, updated with the daily pivots (classic calculation).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/73BppkR8/
TJ
What happens with the NDX gap could be important; either "gap & go" or "gap & crap". The former says DJIA 33K and SPX 4K likely imho
ReplyDeleteES 30-min, upper fractals have broken first, creating another wedge for the time being.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KN8sYII6/
TJ
YM 30-min; the Dow futures (YM) are not trading as strongly as the ES this morning, and already have downward overlap, whereas the ES does not have the downward overlap.
DeleteIWM may be the leading indicator today
ReplyDeleteMakes one wonder exactly who is doing the "rotating". The notion that these inter-market divergences are driven by picky traders is the most laughable thing I have ever heard!
DeleteIwm being pummeled
DeleteJust fyi - YM 4-Hr; here is an external retrace measurement on the Dow futures. Nothing yet precludes a higher high in this latest wedge.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uND7FxEI/
TJ
There goes the RS on NDX...not entirely unexpected...round numbers ahead it would appear...
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - ES 30-min testing lower wedge line again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0ZEhxrRL/
Watching for a confirmed stochastic cross.
TJ
Is the Vix going to close the gap? It sure looks that way.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/UZNQzKng
tech to .618 fib. I swear that looks like 5 waves down with the C finishing today. AAPL as well to it's .382 fib.
ReplyDeleteWith the turn in the DOW it now solely remains to see a turn in tech to send all equities in reverse.
ReplyDeleteLooking at NQ it mimicks 3 waves down as an A-B-C to the low followed by the current retrace. Problem with this count is the A wave can be comfortably counted as 5 waves whilst the C wave cannot.
What can be counted authentically without degree violations is the 5 wave A wave followed by a B wave which is an expanded flat. In this count the low is b of B whereby b of B = a of B x 1.68. c of B (5 waves up to conclude all of B) is the rally off the low which is now in its advanced stages (if not already complete).
At today's high the net retrace of the wave B, as outlined here, was only a little over 52%. Tech bulls (measuring from the nominal bottom) are saying trend is reversed because the 61.8% level has been exceeded. Furthermore it's a "5" off the low, is it not? At least they got that part right.
Bottom line ... large C wave down in tech on the menu.
ES 1-min; first watch to see if pattern forms properly. If it does don't be surprise by a deep retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u618c
TJ
..too long for the diagonal; possible 1-2-i-ii with a truncation top. Watch for overlaps.
DeleteTJ
..also, if overlap occurs, look for possible expanding diagonal.
DeleteTJ
Opening gap in cash now completely filled.
ReplyDeleteA look at 5min cash -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bzLe.png
ES 1-min: the whole point of a pattern like this (potential expanding diagonal) is to make enough of a point difference for it to matter, while making it very hard to recognize.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u62j4
Again, a 'low probability' pattern like this must form correctly in every detail. That means a ((5)) must be longer than a ((3)) for a leading expanding diagonal. An ending expanding diagonal - or just triple zigzag - can fail.
TJ
Dogfight just ahead over that NDX gap. What happens there will I think say a lot about the rest of the week!
ReplyDelete13,465.35 the level I am looking at. Of course what used to be exhaustion gaps have now become a bullish sign, lol!
ReplyDeleteTriple Q will likely break below 320 to signal impending gap closure in NDX...
ReplyDeleteES 1-min, now below prior wave ((3)), but still needs a longer wave, by a couple of ticks in price, and maybe longer in time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u630u
Hard to know what (B) does; might be a Flat, or just 'give up'. You almost never know at this degree of trend.
TJ
..but with the lower low, the invalidation drops to ((4)).
DeleteES 1-min; down wave is now longer in time and price than ((3)) and constitutes a 'valid' diagonal. Can go lower if it wants.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/u6361
TJ
..going lower .. there's that fifth wave; that's the whole purpose of it.
DeleteTJ
Steady as she goes...there is that gap fill. Of course we know that these days that don't mean squat, but we shall see lol!
ReplyDeleteES 1-min: ((5)) = 1.618 x ((3)), and smacks into daily pivot point (PP) at 3,943.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u63gm
TJ
..unfortunately, the invalidation level of a down wave must move all the way back to the all-time-high.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-min, the upward retrace of the entire wave is now 38%; it goes without saying that any new low below ((5)) is a 'new wave', lower. For example, it is possible for an upward correction to lengthen it's time by making a flat, with a lower low, etc. As far as I can tell the diagonal (or triple zigzag) is done. If the market actually wants to 'impulse' lower, it may do so at any time by not exceeding the high, first.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u63mx
TJ
Looking like tat least one more leg higheer. I think an interim top will see a violent breach of 3900 and until and unless that eventuates, a tag of 4K looms large imho.
ReplyDeleteWell, that was quite the hit on the trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/u646u
TJ
Reminder all: tomorrow is FED report-out day, and news conference (I believe). It should start around 14:00 EDT.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Cash 5min - follow up to morning post -
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A new post is started for the next day.
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