End of A Cycle?

Some of the readers of this blog have asked that I have a look at the long term 30-year US Treasury Bond future. For those of you who don't like diagonals, you will hate this post. First, it appears to me that the Cycle A wave up from 1980 is an impulse wave. I am not showing this part of the count. Readers of this blog might like to try to plot the wave from 1980 to 2001, and try to find the impulse portion of it. No, what I am showing is the Cycle C portion of the wave from the Cycle B low - in late 2000 - to the present.

ZB Futures - 1 Month - Expanding Ending Diagonal

 

Within this larger expanding Cycle C diagonal, which meets all of the time and price parameters of an Expanding Diagonal of the 3-3-3-3-3 form, there appear to be fully three other long-term diagonals! Each of these three smaller diagonals is an Intermediate (A) wave of the larger Primary wave. The first diagonal (A) wave is an expanding diagonal, itself, a fractal of the larger form. The other two Intermediate (A) waves are contracting diagonals.

One of the clearest non-overlapping waves is the terminal one - the clear impulse Intermediate (C) wave of Primary ((5)) of Cycle C. 

Such a chart predicts that the start of the diagonal will be eventually exceeded lower in less time than the diagonal took to build. Of course, there are fully 20 years for that to happen! Yes, it may happen in less time, but along the way there will be numerous pull-backs (upward retraces) before cracking the lower trend line.

Again, for those that don't like diagonals - or that don't think diagonals exist - this chart is clearly not for you. But, if you are open-minded, perhaps you will recognize that it is almost impossible to count this wave in any other fashion due to all of the overlaps. And, of course, such a chart fully reflects the central banks' expansionary money creation, as well as their herky-jerky attempts to "twist" or "taper" their strategies seemingly without rationale. Thus, perhaps this chart will add a tool to your Elliott wave tool-kit to assist in counting market waves accurately.

This is the second post this weekend, and if you have not read the first one, you might like to read it now. Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe