The battle for the daily 'line in the sand' continued today with prices penetrating it again today. However, by the futures settlement, a lower low day than that of 19 March was not created yet today. It still could be. The daily chart of the ES futures is shown below, with the daily slow stochastic indicator clearly not embedded.
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| ES Futures - 1 D - Pierce of the Line in the Sand |
If prices begin to make lower lows under the 18-day SMA, then it is possible a trend lower will begin in earnest. Initial target would be the lower daily Bollinger Band, but other calculations have been provided earlier. The 1-Hour chart shown in yesterday's post can be modified slightly as follows to account for a third wave if one has begun in earnest.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Failed Double Combination |
We did try with the waves available to see if a triangle was being constructed. We said it didn't have to be. At this point, most contracting triangles have been invalidated, leaving only a potential barrier triangle, but there are not anywhere near enough waves to suggest that is occurring. So, in the interim, the suggestion is to draw in the declining channel at this point, and see if the channel holds.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
This chart was added as a P.S. Many, many technical indicators are price or breadth based. Fewer are volume based. But, I like to look at volume to see what is saying. Here is the daily chart of the ES with the On Balance Volume indicator.
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| ES Futures - 1 D - With OBV |
As can be seen, the mid-March peak is the first once in this series in which the On-Balance-Volume made a lower high compared to prior peaks. Yes, since October of last year - while there have been a few back steps - in general OBV made a higher high or equal high at each rally peak. Not so on this last one. And, while not making any definitive claims, it is worth noting that volume did not follow the move up. If OBV should start making lows below the Oct/Nov lows it might be saying something much more conclusive.
TraderJoe
A look at today's NQ (hrly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bCVU.png
NASDAQ: https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/03/20210324-nasdaq.png
DeleteAn additional technical chart was added to the post above during the evening session.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thanks for adding that!
DeleteSPY as well.
DeleteA surprise limit down is needed. Nq about to crack the all important 12800 support.
ReplyDeleteES observations (2hr) -
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Target exceeded.
DeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen. There is already a new low this morning. So, price has lower lows and lower highs on the swing-line. It will be interesting to see where the close is in relationship to the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5ypzuA5g/
TJ
ES 30-min: after four consecutive closes below the band (probability ~2%) the fifth close was inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
SPX - C = A = 3858. Came close already.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; now down to S2 daily pivot at 3843. Can go further if it wants.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A peek at cash 5min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bDiW.png
Correction: s/b regular TL (not div). :o)
Delete👍 Should see a lower low
DeleteSlightly larger view - cash 15min, opening gap filled -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bDm9.png
Now testing midline.
DeleteAs an Alternate, we may have had a leading diagonal down from 22nd.
DeleteLooking like a daily hammer. Depth of retrace will be most interesting. If we indeed have an interim low I suspect we re-claim 3900 before the close in a possible spirited second wave of some sort.
ReplyDeleteIndices facing stiff resistance at former support shelves...the bulls could be in very serious trouble.
ReplyDeleteImpulse down off this morning's high in DJIA.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to cash 15min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bDqQ.png
Top TL of expanding pattern co-incident with both rsi 60 level and around 3915. Interesting to see how price reacts...
DeleteTesting 60 level now -
DeleteIts gonna leave us hanging. :o)
DeleteNo surprise there. I will consider re-capture of 3900 bullish, at least in the short term, and barring any ES surrender of it. Strong move off hammer lows....
ReplyDeleteBattle for 3900 in ES is ON...!!!!
ReplyDeleteI have written about the battle for the 18-day for the last three posts.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete