It's not for certain yet, but if prices do make a run for the moving average shown (which is the VWAP or Volume-Weighted Average Price from the low), then a count like this seems to make the most sense and provide tentative degree labels.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Tentative Count |
In this tentative count, wave v should become longer in price and time than wave iii and this would likely bring price down to the VWAP, and/or slightly beyond. The reason the count is still tentative is that diagonals are relatively low probability patterns that must prove themselves out in every detail.
This is still expected to be quite a whippy count, and the eventual retrace - if the pattern occurs - allows for variation in the depth of the retrace. Further, we do not know, if the first five waves down will be (i) or (a). And if it is (a) it could be part of an even larger diagonal, so we must take it a step at a time.
Have a good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Sunday evening - it appears that 3430 was the breakout back test and we have 1-2 up from there, now working on 3. Might see 3650ish by end of month which might be B of a flat from the previous high, and then get the sell just days before? and after election.
ReplyDeleteBarring a dramatic overnight reversal, would expect 354x Monday or early Tuesday.
DeleteThe trend is imo clearly up, I agree we at the very least recapture 3500 by Monday's close
DeleteThe persistently green VIX print in the face of an upward trend is something I have never seen previously and remains yet another of many current market anomalies...
ReplyDeleteES futures ..30 min .. new low even of Friday's end-of-session low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
This 'could be' a diagonal .a wave within wave v. Very whippy, as promised.
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TJ
..a lot of these waves do not appear in the cash market.
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If it's an .a wave, then it is most likely the diagonal shown. Only the 'time' of wave ((3)) is off, as it is shorter than ((1)).
And, if it's the .a wave of a zigzag for wave v, then the high should not be exceeded for the larger pattern to play out.
TJ
..not fully sure, but on cash SPY, the equivalent contracting diagonal might work out. The times and lengths are correct as ((5))<((3))<((1)).
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TJ
For What It's Worth, I've been told by a former floor trader that expanding triangles are the weakest pattern. I would assume that the downward leading expanding diagonal comes from the same mould.
ReplyDeleteWave v of the ES 4-Hr diagonal is now longer than wave iii, since it has crossed below 3,416.25 validating the diagonal pattern.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/simaj
There is now also one level of downward overlap on former wave peaks, as shown.
TJ
..low reached, so far, 3,412.75, and could go lower if it wants.
DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
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