Currently Stuck in Neutral for PF

Today made the new slight higher high that was an option from yesterday's post. Most of it was made in the after-hours as a gap in the cash market. In the ES 30-minute chart below, that portion of the wave largely traded above the intraday 18-period SMA. 

Then, after hitting the R1 Daily Pivot (Classic Calculation) shown as the purple dotted line, prices reversed and traded for the rest of the session largely below that 18-PSMA (red). During the middle of the session, we called out an ES 30-min outside candle lower, said it had to be confirmed, which it was, and prices headed further lower. The "shaking of the trees" occurred when stimulus agreements seemed to get farther apart. So far, the high of that particular outside candle has not been exceeded higher. (There was another outside candle four bars latter in the session, but its high was just barely exceeded).

Regardless, tomorrow is payroll Friday and the wave count will likely be affected by the reaction to the number. There are several options for wave counts at this time. We could be in either a triangle for minute ((b)) of the Minor B wave - with the minute ((a)) wave having ending yesterday; we could be in a very long ending diagonal fifth wave of minute ((a)), still; we could be in a Flat wave for the minute ((b)) wave - which can go over the high if it wants; or we could have started a very sloppy larger wave downward which is still not discernible. There is also an outside chance of the fourth wave of minute ((a)) being a triangle, and a higher high in minute ((a)).

In case that's not clear, we are looking for a potential ((b)) wave in an Intermediate (X) wave, and the options for both the ((b)) wave and the (X) wave are almost any "three-wave" correction. So, this would be expected to be the time of most uncertainty. This is a good opportunity to see what the market does with the jobs number, and remember it is Friday. All-in-all I would like to see a deeper correction for wave minute ((b)) - somewhere over 38% of the hourly up wave.

While there definitely were some inflows today - and amounting to the typical 30 points or so, it didn't feel like much. So, some may have been holding some firepower in reserve for either a good payroll number, a stimulus deal, or both.

Have a good start to your evening,

TraderJoe