In yesterday's post, it was indicated that a better length for the minute ((b)), or circle-b, wave would be at least 38.2% on the minute ((a)), or circle-a, wave. Today, that occurred as shown in the ES hourly chart below.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Into Minute ((b)) |
Overnight, the lower channel boundary was broken, lower, the 38.2% level was attained, and prices in the ES futures spent much of the rest of the day attempting to back-test the lower channel line. The back-test occurred on additional talk of renewed stimulus hopes.
So, we have shown the 'minimum' minute ((B)) wave location on the chart above. It could still grow longer and and form something like a choppy double-zigzag or even triple zigzag lower. It could also form a triangle or a Flat wave. A lot depends on the news. (Note: the NQ futures did make lower lows after the initial overnight low. The ES did not.)
In terms of the shorter-term count, I can legitimately only count three-waves-down on the ES 30-minute futures, as in the chart, below.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes- Three Waves Down |
If the down waves count like 'three-waves down', the up waves don't count like anything yet. But notice the topping tails along the upper parallel. There may have been a failure there preventing a full 'c' wave up count. If prices bust the larger upper parallel on Sunday/Monday, and exceed the b wave, then perhaps look for an upward triangle or the (b) wave of a larger Flat. If prices break and back-test the smaller parallel, lower, then perhaps look for a continuation lower like a grinding double zigzag.
Either way it's going to be messy slop as the daily chart has us fighting the famous "battle at the 18-day SMA, the line in the sand".
Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe
Weekend long term count question. I can't help but wonder if the following is acceptable.
ReplyDelete1973 start
2000 was end of extended 1st wave
2009 flat for 2
2018 end of 3
currently in 4 of some sort.
Do not like the new highs after 18 for alternation but is a guideline.
It does seem to fit all the senangins needed since 2009
Thx
Joe, this is an off topic question but thought you might have the answer. On Thur 9-30 at 1:57 the market took a precipitous drop of about 20 pts on the SPX in about 15 minutes. As it turns out it was due to an announcement that stimulus talks had broken off. This news didn't turn up until about 15 minutes or so later on CNBC yet traders were aware of it instantly. Do you know what news feeds these traders are monitoring that they have this type of info so quickly?
ReplyDeleteThis is the age old question, does news drive the market or does news simply align with what the market was going to do anyway?
DeleteGood luck 'competing' on the basis of news reading. There are very expensive services designed for professionals and quants.
Deletehttps://professional.dowjones.com/newswires/news-analytics/
There are 'news-reading-algorithms' that can read the news and trade faster than a human can read, understand the story, and manually place a trade. Don't take my word for it, partial story below.
>>>>>>
January 26 2010
By: FT Alphaville
From the FT — some giant leaps for robot-kind in the world of trading:
The arms race in trading technology is set to intensify this week as Thomson Reuters, the news and market data company, on Monday unveils a service for “high-frequency” traders allowing them to make split-second trading decisions based on news articles “before the information moves the market” . . .
So-called “machine readable news” services, such as the new Thomson Reuters product, have grown up in parallel with the emergence of high-frequency and algorithmic trading, which depend on lightning-fast delivery of data and news to traders specialising in such computer-driven trading strategies.
Machine readable news systems use computers to “scrub” thousands of breaking news stories, prioritising their relevance for traders – often based on simple key words – and delivering them in a special feed. This provides traders with “signals” that are used to drive their strategies.
>>>>
Can you check the drop with twitter first squawk and let us know if this is a good source for timely breaking news. Thanks
ReplyDelete..see above.
DeleteJoe
ReplyDeleteIs there a possibility, Where your A is could be a 4th and where your circled b is- It could be a 2?
Thanks
Don't think you have been following along. Then 3 prior to your 4th at A would break a line from 0 and it's first 2. And then this 2 would be exceptionally short in time.
DeleteNow we are probably in a quad B! Super
ReplyDeleteLast B was 14 months or so. I would think this one should be longer.
DeleteWith only three-waves down, and price having reached the 78.6% Fib level, it's time to consider either a Flat or a triangle for minute ((b)), as previously discussed.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/scvza
TJ
..and remember, the b wave for a Flat, can indeed go over the prior high.
Delete..and now up over 90%, with few sellers around, watch for a Flat, a barrier triangle or an expanded flat.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/scwj7
TJ
..according to these quotes, now over the prior high.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/scxd9
TJ
ES 1-Hr .. price has back-tested the lower channel boundary, and has turned lower. Start watching for any overlaps that rule out impulsive counts higher, and keep your eye on the smaller up channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sczku
TJ