After yesterday's outside day down to the 18-day SMA, today made an inside day. It has not yet taken out the high of the outside day down on the ES futures, but it did on the Dow cash and the Dow futures..
Yesterday's down bar may have been a "running (c) wave" of some type within Minor B, up, or a smaller degree (x) wave. The daily price bias is still up, the Bollinger Bands are currently headed sideways, and the daily slow stochastic is in over-bought territory. The count is made more difficult by the fact that today's bar can be counted in the futures as a-b-c up with c = a, and only a 23.6% b wave. Or it can be counted as five-waves with a 23.6% second wave. (The former interpretation is preferred unless we go over the high).
All-in-all, a wave count is very messy, and very sloppy as we said would be expected in both a Minor B wave, and an Intermediate (X) wave.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
CPCE getting towards that low end.. i believe .42 today..
ReplyDeleteYesterday's noted ES target of 3426.50 has been reached. This exceeds Tuesday's high.
ReplyDeleteNot sure you saw my message on the last post. Therefore I repeat it here. Thanks, GreyWaver for your interesting contributions, which imho complement the value of the TJ's expertise on this blog. I have questions to the moving average oscillator which you showed on you 4Hr ES chart on Oct 5. What period you are using? Is it the moving average of the RSI14? I couldn't find this indicator on TOS or on Interactive Brokers platform? Will highly appreciate your kind inputs hereto.
DeleteSorry I missed your earlier message. Thanks for your thoughts.
DeleteThe mov avg osc is just a 1,9 simple macd (essentially the difference between the close and simple 9 ma). The RSI mov avg is just Ira's 18prd sma applied to RSI. It seems to do a nice job. The mov avg osc tends to spot reg/hidden divergences that may not show on RSI. Its a nice complement. Hope this helps. Keep in mind, these deal with closes, not highs/lows.
BT - You could also look at a 1,13 simple macd. Ive used both. Compare, and see which might work best for you. :o)
DeleteMany thks GreyWaver for your help. I will check them out and hope I could come back to you for further clarification.
DeleteMany ifs here.
ReplyDeleteIf the overall count is correct, and wave B on the way up was a running flat currently in C from Wednesday low, then C = .618 * A at about 3447, and .618 retrace of the full drop is near 3437. It could now be in wave 4 or already on to wave 5 of C up. It should then turn down hard before the weekend.
The alternate is quite bullish short term if there were a real breakout the first pullback on the way up should hold 3400. and the first target should be near the peak.
Possible ending diagonal wave 5 of C in futures, either with top at 10am or coming very soon. AMZN, AAPL, NDX for clues.
DeleteMaybe wave 5 of ED now with marginal new high. It looks better now on cash.
DeleteES 30-min; price is still in the intraday bands and above the 18-period SMA. Yes, it is 'possible' to see a diagonal wave here. Still, price would be needed to make full candles below the 18-period intraday to be more confirmatory.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sec9h
TJ
Looks like expanding diagonal might be forming on NQ 5 mins. Deep retraces & overlap of 1 & 4, 1 < 3 and 2 < 4.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/d7ZFmeE
Have to see which one plays out.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/kW5vaYI
Time taken to form the diagonal up has now elapsed.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/iATgTKg
SPX, DJI, NYA, Nasdaq are all right now in breakout status, NDX may finish that way. ET, as a bullish alt, what do you think of this being wave 3 from 3300, 1.618 x 1 targeting roughly 3530 - this would probably be an extended 1 sub wave with a shallow retrace that may not be complete, has not even hit 23.6? Or what would be your best upward map?
ReplyDeleteExcuse, the 1.618 times extended wave makes no sense, but am interested in your continuation count.
DeleteJoe,
DeleteTo borrow from Kenny Roger's song:
'If it weren't for nonsense there'd be no sense at all'
Considering the SPY, the 1.618 Extension off the 319.80 (9/24) to 338.74 (10/1) move after it Retraced to 330.47 (10/2) equals 361.11 (full circle+)
Also fascinating, 361.11 is 2.36 higher than the 358.75 High on 9/2
Also of note, ET, a great trader on twitter has adopted your long view, essentially that this is a B down with a C up to follow to finish the up cycle.
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