From the hourly chart of the S&P500 cash index, it looks like the upward wave has reached the 62% retrace level. All day on the ES futures, there was back & forth over and under the intraday 18-period SMA until prices reached the R1 daily pivot point. That coincided closely with the 62% retrace level on cash.
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| SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Minor B? |
Hourly prices have formed something of an upward channel, but not a good one. Resistance today was also at the midpoint of the upward channel. The upward count is very, very difficult with a couple of different interpretations. (Price never did pierce the upward parallel and so a third wave is not yet indicated.) The Elliott Wave Oscillator is on a divergence and has turned red and declining.
Each upward wave is shorter than the prior wave, but the second minute ((x)) wave is longer than the first. (That rules out a contracting diagonal for those thinking of such.)
So, the best interpretation appears to be that Minor B is in progress or has been completed.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Hourly ES, showing pos HD pullback at RSI level 60 (indication of strong move). I have a target of 3455.75, confluent with the 1.382 ext. retrace of Tuesday's end of day selloff.
ReplyDeleteRight GW
Delete3349.59 is 78.6% of the range from the 3198 Lo (9/24) to 3388 Hi (10/1) from the Re-Trace Lo of 3300.25 (10/2)
More Tennis, at the net
ET, The analog I'm looking at is calling for a expanded flat. Could this entire move up be a wave 2 with this being the 4th wave being an expanded flat?
ReplyDelete"with a couple of different interpretations"...duh,and always, forever...
ReplyDeleteIt's possible to count 5 up from 3330 (one way to count has it complete, another has 5th of 5th to go or in progress with one more high for the move) where 3377 marks 1 and the first hit of 3433 is the top of wave 3. Wave 3 is only 1.382 * 1, but it is the only thing that works with 0-2 TL. Wave 5 would be similar to wave 1. If this works, then today is the breakout failure.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if the sell does not come, then the grinding up action is consistent with a 3 wave and this is already longer than the wave up from 3300. If it extends instead of failing, then project 1.618 * 1 to about 3525 as target before any meaningful pullback.
Also, the blog is better with real time commentary.
For the terminal, within the 5th of 5th, it should now be in 3 from either 7am or 2:50am. 1st of the 5th was the diagonal starting at 3414
DeleteFor the bull count, it would probably get there as an extended 5th, especially since 3 was short. So 4 would have ended at 3419 instead of 3414, the move to 3459 was 1 of extended 5th, and coming up today is 3rd of extended 5th, target about 3510 at 1.618 * 1.
If the morning move to 3459 is the B wave of a flat instead of finishing terminal 5th/5th and later rallies over the top, then the consolidation is long in time and supports the extended 5th scenario.
ET, in the count on the chart, Z is now longer than Y - does that break any rules? If invalid, what bear count fits that longer Z wave?
ReplyDeleteHi Joe .. right; the w-x-y-x-z pattern does not now look as good. Perhaps just w-x-y with this wave up as 'c' wave of y. Still nothing definitive downward yet.
DeleteTJ
If you look at cash 1 1 ended at 3404 and 3 3442ish... 5th cannot go above 3478ish
ReplyDeletegap up should be 3 of 5 and then 5 of 5 to complete the move fromn 3350ish after trump sickness
ReplyDeleteLabeling is only for purposes of outlining a possible measured move (equality).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/t6TBnft
Yes, w-x-y in some fashion currently looks the next best.
DeleteTJ
Ok going much higher
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing a 3PDH with a target of 3345
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - at today's high of 3,474 the Es daily futures exceeded the upper daily Bollinger Band at 3,467. 'Often' that is a spot where the Smart Money comes out of some of it's longs.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Just fyi - purely from a perspective of pattern, overlap, and MACD divergence, the hourly DOW looks interesting.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/seu18
TJ
In terms of RSI, here's an update on the hourly. (10min delay) I believe the message (currently) ties in with TJs on the Dow.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/rFc6GzB
Our pre-close pullback created an add'l pos HD. Its target of 3478.25 will come into play should the prior 3474.50 be exceeded. This is what leads to regular divergence not "working" often times, as an HD appears on the pullback, implying a retest/more. This can occur several times before an ultimate turn. HDs are by nature imply trend continuation.
DeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDelete