The Dow cash was lower, the S&P higher. A continued chart is below. Last night made a higher further high as a fifth wave up extended somewhat, as we said it might in yesterday's post.
Prices then headed lower for the morning, making a retrace wave of 62% or more, then turned higher, and neither cash nor futures settled over the highs of their prior morning prices. The wave count in cash, above, has only three-waves-up from the low at the close. There is now a tentative up channel, which is to be respected until full candles close down outside of the lower channel boundary.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I think 3510 ES is the number. The bear case LD retracement should fail before there on the next 5 up. The bull case 1.618 wave should go straight through on the next 5 up.
ReplyDeleteWhy 3510
DeleteWhy 3510
DeleteBoth futures and cash would be above wave 2 down, greater than .618 retrace (right near .786), greater than A=C. Even 3500 is pushing it. I guess the bull case is more likely next week, as strange as it seems.
DeleteA=C on the way up from 3403 that is.
DeleteAssuming a big flat from Sep 2 and A-B-now C up (or WXY) from 3200 where C = .618 * A. This week low was down 30 so it would be closer to 3620 now which would be - drum roll - at the trendline connecting the last 3 major tops.
DeleteSo I guess a strong rally points to this and a sputter or spike points to wave 3 down.
In SPY, the sharp sell-off from the 2/19 High (339.08) to 3/23 Low (218.26), sets out a 120.82 point trading range times a Fibonacci .146 equals 17.64.
DeleteAdd/subtract 17.64 from the High gives an area to sell (exit longs/enter shorts) from 321.44 to 356.72.
Add/subtract 17.64 from the Low gives an area to buy (enter longs/exit shorts) from 200.62 to 235.90.
Thks
ReplyDeleteA couple of charts to pass the time this weekend.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Wnd2gYJ
https://imgur.com/f9mFKWa
Good work. Keep it up.
DeleteThanks GW, very enlightening.
DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete