Weekly GOLD - Interim Report

I often get questions on the GOLD market. The only thing I track are gold futures, but that count is not too hard to decipher if we use the principles of degree labeling. The weekly chart is below.

GOLD Futures - Weekly Nearest Close Only - Primary [ B ]

So, within the Primary [ B ] wave up, there appears to be three distinct waves. They are Intermediate (A), (B), (C). In order to have confidence in the pattern, the principle of degree labeling states that all of the sub-waves of (C) must be smaller than the Intermediate (A) wave that started the pattern.

As you can see, when counted in this manner, then Minor 1, 3, and 5 which head in the same direction as Intermediate (A), and are smaller degree waves than (A), are indeed smaller than Intermediate (A). Unlike certain large Elliott wave firms, I can not find a (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern that fulfills this requirement. That is because 1 + 3 > (A), and that would violate degree labeling.

This means Gold is likely in the Minor 5th wave up, and it may very well end as an ending contracting diagonal which is currently trying to peek up over the parallel Elliott trend channel. The MACD is on a higher high, and that typically only happens within a "(C)" wave.

From a time standpoint, it should be noted that since Intermediate (C) is 'longer in time' than Intermediate (A). This means that the two waves 'must' be of the same degree or the (C) wave must be of a higher degree. From a degree standpoint, note that Minor wave 4, down, is shorter in both price and time than Intermediate (B), and it's subwaves are shorter than their higher degree waves in the downward direction, as well. For example, within Minor 4, then minute ((c)) is shorter than Minor C of Intermediate (B), down.

Readers of this blog should attempt to count the 5th wave higher for their practice and education, and to share with others if they see fit.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe