As we related on Friday, the up count would be satisfactory and count without a truncation if the S&P500 cash index and/or futures made a fifth wave high. Both of them did that today. The daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - New Recovery High |
Since there is a new local high, it establishes a divergence with the MACD indicator. But, please note today's preliminary advance-decline statistics shown on the chart. The cash index was up +27 points, and it couldn't even muster even advances with declines.
Also recall that up Mondays often (not always) lead to turn-around Tuesdays. But, we will also remind that price is above the 18-day SMA, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. The same is true on the intraday wave counting screen too as of the futures settlement.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Fascinating EW count. Most expect the next interim high to be the end of B, but we do have the unusual occurrence of almost synchronous cycle turn dates in the Bradley and Phi Mate models on August 18 and 19. An X wave down would align very well with a final top sometime in the first half of August.
ReplyDeletePrice has met the measured move target from the triangle and is closing in on wave v = 0.618 x net (i through iii).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rijdv
TJ
Poss expanding diag. on 5min?
DeleteThanks
...And we know triangles are penultimate waves...any bears left?
DeleteAlso looks like double top in NQ...
..how does it feel to identify one live & have it meet it's price target?
DeleteHas met price target, still a bit short on time for 5th.
DeleteAssuming we're looking at the same thing, lol.
DeleteI am increasingly learning to appreciate the discipline of of objective T.A. It divorces one from emotional reactions to market price action. I would wager you can get almost equally valuable info by observing the reaction of others, especally bearish ones now throwing in the towel. Thanks for your work T.J...
ReplyDeleteyes, that is the benefit, and ..welcome Tachy ..
DeleteLooking for -D on the 60ty..then launch a short pos..Vix looking interesting today, also the Qs :)
ReplyDeleteThis short term count valid until or unless there is downward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rilxu
TJ
there is nothing bearish about es
ReplyDeletemomentum up and locked in bullish
daily trend is up
bias is up
if a top is called at every new high
eventually one will be correct
Although often technically sound advice..there are five flies in your ointment ..1) if being over the 18-day 'always' meant higher prices, then once over the 18-day, prices would 'never' correct. It is the fallacy of continual extrapolation. 2) I wouldn't tend to use the word 'nothing' bearish. I showed yesterday how the advance-decline line is weakening a bit. In prior days I showed the put-call ratio getting to extremes. 3) 'Smart Money' often - not always - takes profits at the nearby upper Bollinger Band - currently about 3,280. They 'call a top' there nearly every time - at least enough of a top to take profits. 4) Some market averages such as the Dow are clearly diverging from the S&P. Why? 5) You can reverse your argument and apply it to bottoms: if below the 18-day with an embedded slow stochastic, then the correction will 'always' be bearish and it will never end or become bullish.
DeleteThink it over.
TJ
i prefer to stay with the trend until it reverses
Deleteand not guess that it might reverse day after day
when that has been the incorrect strategy
even if a daily low is broken
the trend cannot turn down
the trend can only turn neutral
we are far from a downtrend at this point
no need to catch the tippy top
that is a losing game
..your particular style of trading or investment is of no concern here. I've have already posted a paraphrase of Ira's guidelines on the site. This is a wave counting site, and not a trading or investment site. If you simply can not understand that, then leave. Posting a wave marking as needed is not "always calling a top". How you interpret it that way is beyond me.
DeleteI can think of a few:
DeleteDOW Theory non-confirmation.
Declining market breadth as measure by the ten day A/D line
Put/Call ratio
Inter index divergence
Bearish crosses on several momentum indicators.
NDX (a big component of SPX) distance from 200 day MA and what that augurs historically.
Etc. Etc.
I guess one could argue that it all depends on one's time frame of reference, but to argue that there is nothing bearish about SPX/ES seems to me to ignore quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. Just my two...
of what use is wave counting
ReplyDeleteif it is leading you to the wrong answer??
simple tech analysis shows a breakout in spx above 3233
you keep looking higher until that breakout fails
that is being objective
looking for a spx decline here is biased no matter what method you are using
the case may be different for dow etc
@mischik .. as I said, if you are not interested in wave counting, then please leave the site. By your own definition, it can do you no good. So, doing something - like reading a blog over & over - which you have defined as not being able to do you any good is the very definition of insanity. Please leave the site unless you are interested in wave counting. This is 'not' a trading service.
Delete@mishchik .. ok. Based on your last comments which will not be posted, your intentions are now clear. 1) You are here to promote your own blog, 2) you are here to praise Tony Caldaro's site - which has not had an update since February 11th of this year because of how incorrect they were at the turn, and 3) you are here to say that I constantly call tops. Based on these items - which you state - all of your remaining posts are going to spam. Sorry, chap.
DeleteA case for a 5-min triangle in cash SPY can be made. But it is not proven yet. The alt: count is a truncation (alt: means - a little less likely but possible).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rioc6
TJ
Looking like the cream is sinking..the sour milk rising ..volume is pathetic=very tired mkt. :)
ReplyDeleteHere's the current situation
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/riq0j
TJ
I also have a fourth wave, with a fifth up to come...
DeleteSo, if we break below "e" of the triangle, have we seen the end of (c) of ((Y)) of minor B?
DeleteThanks
..looks like the truncation or a 'last chance' ivth wave flat. Trading very weak. Downward overlap not allowed.
Delete..futures have downward overlap; truncation more likely
Deletehttps://invst.ly/riqpf
TJ
...SPY now has downward overlap; more trouble for any upward count.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/riqtn
TJ
Thanks Joe...have a great night..GL to all
Delete30 min FIB..3277ish...sp having a tough time conquering ...may not get the -D I was hoping for..can they push it up for a high today..please. :)
ReplyDeleteWhere is the definitive point at which we know B is complete, and we are headed to C of (X)?
ReplyDeleteThanks
..your words (i.e. "definitive) still imply you are looking for 'certainty' rather than assessing probabilities. See tomorrow's post, which is now up.
Delete